Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 22/11, 14:45

Prediction: GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan

Team pages: GKS Katowice · Lech Poznan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

GKS Katowice1.69

Lech Poznan2.11

1X2

30% 24% 46%

GKS Katowice Draw Lech Poznan

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

GKS Katowice 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLLWL

Lech Poznan 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

GKS Katowice 0–2–2 Lech Poznan (4 last)

Lech Poznan3-3GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice0-1Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice2-2Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan2-0GKS Katowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GKS Katowice 1498 · Lech Poznan 1540

	GKS Katowice	Draw	Lech Poznan
Our model	31%	22%	47%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan (rating 1498 vs 1540).
H2H favours Lech Poznan: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GKS Katowice	Lech Poznan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	2.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	3.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.26
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.03 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +1’	3.10	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +7’	3.26	4.03	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · GKS Katowice 0–2–2 Lech Poznan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	3-3 HT 0-1	GKS Katowice
05/10/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	GKS Katowice	0-1 HT 0-1	Lech Poznan
18/05/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	GKS Katowice	2-2 HT 1-1	Lech Poznan
23/11/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Lech Poznan	2-0 HT 1-0	GKS Katowice

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GKS Katowice	Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia Bialystok	0-1 L	2-1 W
Widzew Lodz	3-2 W	3-2 W
Korona Kielce	0-1 L	6-1 W
Rakow Czestochowa	4-1 W	1-0 W
Zaglebie Lubin	1-2 L	2-2 D
Gornik Zabrze	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GKS Katowice

WLLWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
31/10	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
24/10	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
17/10	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/10	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	1	0	W
09/10	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
19/09	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/09	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
04/09	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	0-3	8	9	L
30/08	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-2	4	1	W

Lech Poznan

WWWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
31/10	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	3-1	7	0	W
25/10	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/10	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	4-0	6-1	5	5	W
10/10	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
20/09	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	3-1	5-1	10	3	W
12/09	Gornik Zabrze Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
06/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
03/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
30/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	3-2	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lech Poznan win (46%). Probabilities: GKS Katowice 30%, draw 24%, Lech Poznan 46%.

How many goals are expected in GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan?

The model expects 3.8 goals (GKS Katowice 1.69 · Lech Poznan 2.11), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.