Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 21/11, 17:30

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin · Gornik Zabrze

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Zaglebie Lubin0.81

Gornik Zabrze1.25

1X2

24% 29% 47%

Zaglebie Lubin Draw Gornik Zabrze

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWDWD

Gornik Zabrze 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDDDW

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin 5–1 Gornik Zabrze (6 last)

Gornik Zabrze0-2Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin2-0Gornik Zabrze
Zaglebie Lubin2-1Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze0-1Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin1-2Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze0-2Zaglebie Lubin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin 1536 · Gornik Zabrze 1548

	Zaglebie Lubin	Draw	Gornik Zabrze
Our model	23%	32%	45%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zaglebie Lubin: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin	Gornik Zabrze
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.02 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +3’	3.60	3.40	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	4.02	3.46	1.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin 5–0–1 Gornik Zabrze

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	0-2 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin
07/11/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	2-0 HT 1-0	Gornik Zabrze
11/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	2-1 HT 0-1	Gornik Zabrze
05/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	0-1 HT 0-1	Zaglebie Lubin
08/04/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Zaglebie Lubin	1-2 HT 1-1	Gornik Zabrze
02/10/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	0-2 HT 0-1	Zaglebie Lubin

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	34	13	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	31
3	Legia Warsaw	14	6	6	2	25	15	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	20	15	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	22	19	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	18	17	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	24	20	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	25	20	21
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	13	7	0	6	18	18	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	22	24	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	14	21	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
13	Widzew Lodz	14	2	8	4	20	19	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
16	Rakow Czestochowa	14	4	0	10	23	31	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	17	25	10
18	Wieczysta Krakow	14	2	2	10	18	28	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin	Gornik Zabrze
Lech Poznan	2-2 D	2-1 W
Korona Kielce	1-0 W	2-0 W
Motor Lublin	2-2 D	0-0 D
Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-0 W	3-1 W
Cracovia Krakow	1-3 L	1-0 W
Rakow Czestochowa	3-2 W	2-1 W
Wieczysta Krakow	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Zabrze (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin

DDWWLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-2	1	4	D
02/11	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
23/10	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
18/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/10	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
12/09	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
07/09	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	2	8	D

Gornik Zabrze

WWWWDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wieczysta Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/10	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
23/10	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
18/10	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
10/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/09	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
06/09	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
03/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gornik Zabrze win (47%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 24%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 47%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Zaglebie Lubin 0.81 · Gornik Zabrze 1.25), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.