Football · Mexico Liga MX · 22/11, 00:00
Prediction: Pachuca vs Toluca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Pachuca1.46
Toluca1.7
1X2
Pachuca
Draw
Toluca
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Pachuca
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Toluca
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pachuca
2–3–1
Toluca
(6 last)
- Pachuca2-0Toluca
- Toluca0-1Pachuca
- Pachuca1-1Toluca
- Toluca2-2Pachuca
- Toluca3-2Pachuca
- Pachuca2-2Toluca
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pachuca 1559 · Toluca 1491
| Pachuca | Draw | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 23% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pachuca (rating 1559 vs 1491).
- H2H favours Pachuca: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pachuca | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 3.8 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca 2–3–1 Toluca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Toluca |
| 04/05/26 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pachuca |
| 23/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Toluca |
| 27/10/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Pachuca |
| 30/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Pachuca |
| 18/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Toluca |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | 30 |
| 3 | Chivas Guadalajara | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 24 |
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | 22 |
| 10 | Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 22 |
| 11 | Unam Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| 12 | Queretaro | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 13 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | 11 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pachuca | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 4-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Tigres UANL | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Club America | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Cruz Azul | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Monterrey | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Santos Laguna | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Tijuana | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pachuca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 01/11 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/10 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/10 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 19/10 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 12/10 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 27/09 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 10 | W |
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 01/11 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/10 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/10 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-2 | 17 | 0 | D |
| 18/10 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 0 | D |
| 10/10 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/09 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pachuca vs Toluca?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca win (43%). Probabilities: Pachuca 33%, draw 24%, Toluca 43%.
How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Toluca?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Pachuca 1.46 · Toluca 1.7), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Toluca?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.