Football · Denmark Division 1 · 06/11, 19:00

Prediction: HB Køge vs AaB

Team pages: HB Køge · AaB

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

HB Køge1.66

AaB1.25

1X2

46% 26% 28%

HB Køge Draw AaB

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HB Køge 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDDWWLDL

AaB 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDDLLD

Head-to-head

HB Køge 0–2–4 AaB (6 last)

AaB0-0HB Køge
AaB1-0HB Køge
HB Køge1-1AaB
AaB2-1HB Køge
HB Køge0-2AaB
HB Køge1-2AaB

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AaB: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HB Køge	AaB
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.96

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.59 → 2.61▲	Pinn 2.61
X	3.74 → 3.76▲	Pinn 3.76
2	2.45 → 2.43▼	Pinn 2.43

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +32’	2.59	3.74	2.45
03:33 +45’	2.61▲	3.76▲	2.43▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HB Køge 0–2–4 AaB

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Denmark Division 1	AaB	0-0 HT 0-0	HB Køge
30/05/26 Denmark Division 1	AaB	1-0 HT 1-0	HB Køge
26/04/26 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	1-1 HT 1-1	AaB
02/10/25 Denmark Division 1	AaB	2-1 HT 0-0	HB Køge
10/08/25 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	0-2 HT 0-1	AaB
03/12/23 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	1-2 HT 0-2	AaB

Standings · Denmark Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hvidovre IF	13	8	5	0	24	13	29
2	FC Fredericia	13	6	5	2	21	9	23
3	Vejle	12	6	5	1	24	15	23
4	AB Copenhagen	13	5	3	5	18	15	18
5	Hobro IK	13	4	4	5	16	23	16
6	Kolding IF	13	3	6	4	16	17	15
7	Aarhus Fremad	12	3	6	3	10	11	15
8	AaB	13	3	6	4	16	18	15
9	Hillerød	12	3	3	6	15	18	12
10	HB Køge	13	2	5	6	19	25	11
11	Vendsyssel FF	12	2	5	5	13	20	11
12	Esbjerg	13	2	5	6	16	24	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HB Køge	AaB
Hvidovre IF	2-2 D	2-2 D
AB Copenhagen	2-3 L	2-0 W
Vendsyssel FF	2-0 W	2-2 D
Hobro IK	5-2 W	1-1 D
Esbjerg	2-2 D	3-3 D
Hillerød	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HB Køge (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HB Køge

LDDDDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
23/10	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-2	5	0	D
16/10	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-3	4	7	L
11/10	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
21/09	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	1-1	5-2	6	1	W
12/09	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-2	6	1	D
04/09	Hillerød Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	AaB Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	2-1	2-2	4	0	D
15/08	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-2	4	2	L

AaB

LLDWDDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
24/10	Hillerød Denmark Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/10	Vejle Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
10/10	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	2-2	3-3	6	1	D
20/09	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
12/09	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
05/09	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	HB Køge Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
21/08	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
14/08	FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-3	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HB Køge vs AaB?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HB Køge win (46%). Probabilities: HB Køge 46%, draw 26%, AaB 28%.

How many goals are expected in HB Køge vs AaB?

The model expects 2.91 goals (HB Køge 1.66 · AaB 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HB Køge vs AaB?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.