Football · Denmark Division 1 · 20/11, 19:00

Prediction: Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro IK

Team pages: Aarhus Fremad · Hobro IK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Aarhus Fremad1.31

Hobro IK0.88

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Aarhus Fremad Draw Hobro IK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aarhus Fremad 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLDDWL

Hobro IK 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDLDDL

Head-to-head

Aarhus Fremad 2–1–3 Hobro IK (6 last)

Hobro IK1-2Aarhus Fremad
Hobro IK0-3Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad0-1Hobro IK
Hobro IK0-0Aarhus Fremad
Hobro IK2-0Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad1-2Hobro IK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aarhus Fremad 1482 · Hobro IK 1425

	Aarhus Fremad	Draw	Hobro IK
Our model	45%	31%	24%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aarhus Fremad (rating 1482 vs 1425).
H2H favours Hobro IK: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aarhus Fremad	Hobro IK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.9	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17	1.91	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +11’	1.91	3.58	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aarhus Fremad 2–1–3 Hobro IK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Denmark Division 1	Hobro IK	1-2 HT 1-2	Aarhus Fremad
14/05/26 Denmark Division 1	Hobro IK	0-3 HT 0-1	Aarhus Fremad
26/04/26 Denmark Division 1	Aarhus Fremad	0-1 HT 0-1	Hobro IK
20/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Hobro IK	0-0 HT 0-0	Aarhus Fremad
07/11/25 Denmark Division 1	Hobro IK	2-0 HT 0-0	Aarhus Fremad
24/09/25 Denmark Cup	Aarhus Fremad	1-2 HT 1-1	Hobro IK

Standings · Denmark Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hvidovre IF	14	9	5	0	27	13	32
2	Vejle	14	7	6	1	26	16	27
3	FC Fredericia	14	6	5	3	21	10	23
4	AB Copenhagen	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
5	Aarhus Fremad	14	4	6	4	12	14	18
6	AaB	14	3	7	4	17	19	16
7	Hobro IK	14	4	4	6	16	24	16
8	Hillerød	14	4	3	7	18	21	15
9	Kolding IF	14	3	6	5	17	20	15
10	Esbjerg	14	3	5	6	17	24	14
11	HB Køge	14	2	6	6	20	26	12
12	Vendsyssel FF	14	2	6	6	14	24	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aarhus Fremad	Hobro IK
Hvidovre IF	0-3 L	1-3 L
Hillerød	2-0 W	1-3 L
Vejle	0-0 D	0-0 D
Esbjerg	0-0 D	0-1 L
Vendsyssel FF	0-0 D	2-2 D
Kolding IF	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Fredericia	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Aarhus Fremad (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aarhus Fremad

DDWDLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
01/11	Hillerød Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
24/10	Vejle Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
16/10	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/10	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
19/09	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
11/09	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
06/09	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
30/08	Vejle Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/08	FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Hobro IK

WLLDLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
30/10	AaB Denmark Division 1	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
23/10	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
17/10	FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1	0-3	0-3	0	5	L
10/10	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
21/09	HB Køge Denmark Division 1	1-1	2-5	2	1	L
11/09	Vejle Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/09	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
30/08	Hillerød Denmark Division 1	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
21/08	AaB Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro IK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aarhus Fremad win (47%). Probabilities: Aarhus Fremad 47%, draw 28%, Hobro IK 25%.

How many goals are expected in Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro IK?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Aarhus Fremad 1.31 · Hobro IK 0.88), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro IK?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.