Football · Denmark Division 1 · 21/11, 13:30

Prediction: Vejle vs HB Køge

Team pages: Vejle · HB Køge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Vejle2.02

HB Køge0.9

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Vejle Draw HB Køge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Vejle 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLWDDW

HB Køge 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Vejle 2–2–2 HB Køge (6 last)

HB Køge0-2Vejle
HB Køge0-0Vejle
Vejle1-2HB Køge
HB Køge2-1Vejle
Vejle1-0HB Køge
HB Køge0-0Vejle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vejle 1536 · HB Køge 1487

	Vejle	Draw	HB Køge
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vejle (rating 1536 vs 1487).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vejle	HB Køge
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.79 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +5’	1.44	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +5’	1.44	4.79	6.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vejle 2–2–2 HB Køge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	0-2 HT 0-1	Vejle
24/02/23 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	0-0 HT 0-0	Vejle
03/09/22 Denmark Division 1	Vejle	1-2 HT 0-0	HB Køge
30/06/20 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	2-1 HT 0-0	Vejle
01/03/20 Denmark Division 1	Vejle	1-0 HT 0-0	HB Køge
02/10/19 Denmark Division 1	HB Køge	0-0 HT 0-0	Vejle

Standings · Denmark Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hvidovre IF	14	9	5	0	27	13	32
2	Vejle	14	7	6	1	26	16	27
3	FC Fredericia	14	6	5	3	21	10	23
4	AB Copenhagen	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
5	Aarhus Fremad	14	4	6	4	12	14	18
6	AaB	14	3	7	4	17	19	16
7	Hobro IK	14	4	4	6	16	24	16
8	Hillerød	14	4	3	7	18	21	15
9	Kolding IF	14	3	6	5	17	20	15
10	Esbjerg	14	3	5	6	17	24	14
11	HB Køge	14	2	6	6	20	26	12
12	Vendsyssel FF	14	2	6	6	14	24	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vejle	HB Køge
Vendsyssel FF	1-1 D	2-0 W
AaB	1-0 W	1-1 D
Hvidovre IF	1-2 L	2-2 D
Hobro IK	0-0 D	5-2 W
Esbjerg	4-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HB Køge (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vejle

WDWDDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
01/11	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
24/10	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
17/10	AaB Denmark Division 1	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
09/10	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	1-0	1-2	9	5	L
20/09	FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
11/09	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
04/09	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	4-0	4-1	2	0	W
30/08	Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
21/08	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	1-1	4-2	4	1	W

HB Køge

DDDDWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	AaB Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
31/10	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
23/10	Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-2	5	0	D
16/10	AB Copenhagen Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-3	4	7	L
11/10	Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
21/09	Hobro IK Denmark Division 1	1-1	5-2	6	1	W
12/09	Esbjerg Denmark Division 1	0-1	2-2	6	1	D
04/09	Hillerød Denmark Division 1	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
29/08	AaB Denmark Division 1	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Kolding IF Denmark Division 1	2-1	2-2	4	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vejle vs HB Køge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vejle win (63%). Probabilities: Vejle 63%, draw 22%, HB Køge 15%.

How many goals are expected in Vejle vs HB Køge?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Vejle 2.02 · HB Køge 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vejle vs HB Køge?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.