Prediction: Mauaense (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)
Expected goals: 2.83 (Mauaense (W) 0.41 · Sao Paulo (W) 2.41). The model gives 4% home, 12% draw, 84% away. Under 3.25 goals (56%) and not both to score (56%). Most likely score: 0-2.
Over its last 10 matches, Mauaense (W) sits at 2-3-5 (W-D-L), while Sao Paulo (W) arrives on a 7-1-2 run.
| Mauaense (W) | Draw | Sao Paulo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 4% | 15% | 81% |
| Market | 3% | 10% | 87% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1470 vs 1551).
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mauaense (W) | Sao Paulo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/38/38% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.6 | 1.3 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.5 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mauaense (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Itacoatiara (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Itacoatiara (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Coritiba (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Rolim de Moura EC (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/04 | Brasil de Farroupilha (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 17/04 | Criciuma (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Criciuma (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Brasil de Farroupilha (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 21/03 | Coritiba (W) Brazil Serie A3 Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 22/11 | Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Cup Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
Sao Paulo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 21/04 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/03 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mauaense (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo (W) win (84%). Probabilities: Mauaense (W) 4%, draw 12%, Sao Paulo (W) 84%.
How many goals are expected in Mauaense (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Mauaense (W) 0.41 · Sao Paulo (W) 2.41), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mauaense (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.