Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv

Team pages: Botev Vratsa · Botev Plovdiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Botev Vratsa1.12

Botev Plovdiv1.44

1X2

28% 28% 43%

Botev Vratsa Draw Botev Plovdiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Botev Vratsa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDLLL

Botev Plovdiv 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Botev Vratsa 1–5 Botev Plovdiv (6 last)

Botev Plovdiv1-3Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa1-2Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv3-1Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa1-3Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv2-0Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa3-5Botev Plovdiv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botev Vratsa 1504 · Botev Plovdiv 1535

	Botev Vratsa	Draw	Botev Plovdiv
Our model	28%	29%	43%
Market	29%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botev Plovdiv: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botev Vratsa	Botev Plovdiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	1.9 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +6’	3.20	3.30	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Vratsa 1–0–5 Botev Plovdiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	1-3 HT 1-1	Botev Vratsa
05/10/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	1-2 HT 1-1	Botev Plovdiv
23/11/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	3-1 HT 2-0	Botev Vratsa
21/07/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	1-3 HT 0-0	Botev Plovdiv
12/04/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	2-0 HT 1-0	Botev Vratsa
21/10/23 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	3-5 HT 1-2	Botev Plovdiv

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ludogorets Razgrad	5	5	0	0	10	3	15
2	CSKA 1948 Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
3	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
4	CSKA Sofia	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
5	Botev Plovdiv	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
6	Arda Kardzhali	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Spartak Varna	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
8	Slavia Sofia	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
9	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	3
10	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
11	Botev Vratsa	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
12	Cherno More Varna	5	0	1	4	4	12	1
13	Septemvri Sofia	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
14	Dunav Ruse	4	0	0	4	2	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botev Vratsa	Botev Plovdiv
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-2 L	0-2 L
Cherno More Varna	1-1 D	1-0 W
Arda Kardzhali	1-0 W	2-1 W
Beroe	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Botev Plovdiv (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Botev Vratsa

WWDWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
02/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	1-2	2	3	L
25/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
10/07	Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
03/07	Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies	2-2	2-2	3	6	D
01/07	Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
27/06	Levski Sofia Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
18/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-1	3	3	W

Botev Plovdiv

WWLWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
10/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
01/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
27/07	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
20/07	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
12/07	Beroe Club Friendly List	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
04/07	Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/07	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	KF Ballkani Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
26/06	Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Botev Plovdiv win (43%). Probabilities: Botev Vratsa 28%, draw 28%, Botev Plovdiv 43%.

How many goals are expected in Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Botev Vratsa 1.12 · Botev Plovdiv 1.44), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.