Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/08, 17:00
Prediction: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Team pages: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia · CSKA Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.83
CSKA Sofia1.61
1X2
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Draw
CSKA Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
CSKA Sofia
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
0–1–5
CSKA Sofia
(6 last)
- CSKA Sofia2-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- CSKA Sofia2-1Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-1CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia1-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-3CSKA Sofia
- Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-1CSKA Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1465 · CSKA Sofia 1603
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Market | 19% | 25% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1465 vs 1603).
- H2H favours CSKA Sofia: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.4 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0–1–5 CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 13/12/25 Bulgaria Cup | CSKA Sofia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 27/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 02/04/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 16/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-3 HT 0-2 | CSKA Sofia |
| 30/03/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 26/06 | KF Drita Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Maccabi Tel Aviv UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | Maccabi Tel Aviv UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 27/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 23/07 | FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 20/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia win (55%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 19%, draw 26%, CSKA Sofia 55%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0.83 · CSKA Sofia 1.61), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.