Football · Bulgaria First League · 21/11, 13:45
Prediction: Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Team pages: Slavia Sofia · Arda Kardzhali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Slavia Sofia0.93
Arda Kardzhali1.26
1X2
Slavia Sofia
Draw
Arda Kardzhali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Slavia Sofia
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Arda Kardzhali
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Slavia Sofia
1–2–3
Arda Kardzhali
(6 last)
- Arda Kardzhali1-0Slavia Sofia
- Arda Kardzhali2-1Slavia Sofia
- Slavia Sofia2-0Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali1-1Slavia Sofia
- Slavia Sofia1-1Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali3-1Slavia Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Slavia Sofia 1496 · Arda Kardzhali 1503
| Slavia Sofia | Draw | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Market | 27% | 30% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Arda Kardzhali: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Slavia Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/90/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 2.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Slavia Sofia 1–2–3 Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Slavia Sofia |
| 14/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Slavia Sofia |
| 25/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 22/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Slavia Sofia |
| 30/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 23/05/24 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Slavia Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 34 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 32 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 21 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 16 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 13 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 11 |
| 13 | Botev Vratsa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Slavia Sofia | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| CSKA Sofia | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Spartak Varna | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Levski Sofia | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 6 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Slavia Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/10 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 26/10 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/09 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 22/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/11 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 27/10 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 12/10 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arda Kardzhali win (43%). Probabilities: Slavia Sofia 27%, draw 30%, Arda Kardzhali 43%.
How many goals are expected in Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Slavia Sofia 0.93 · Arda Kardzhali 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.