Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/11, 12:00

Prediction: Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Team pages: Botev Vratsa · CSKA 1948 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Botev Vratsa1.09

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.61

1X2

25% 27% 48%

Botev Vratsa Draw CSKA 1948 Sofia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Botev Vratsa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDLDLL

CSKA 1948 Sofia 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Botev Vratsa 1–1–4 CSKA 1948 Sofia (6 last)

CSKA 1948 Sofia2-1Botev Vratsa
CSKA 1948 Sofia1-0Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa0-0CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia0-1Botev Vratsa
CSKA 1948 Sofia1-0Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa0-3CSKA 1948 Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botev Vratsa 1444 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1577

	Botev Vratsa	Draw	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA 1948 Sofia (rating 1444 vs 1577).
H2H favours CSKA 1948 Sofia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botev Vratsa	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.63 ★
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +6’	3.70	3.50	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +5’	3.83	3.63	1.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Vratsa 1–1–4 CSKA 1948 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-1 HT 1-0	Botev Vratsa
10/04/26 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-0 HT 0-0	Botev Vratsa
03/11/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	0-0 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
28/04/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	0-1 HT 0-0	Botev Vratsa
21/02/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-0 HT 0-0	Botev Vratsa
30/08/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Vratsa	0-3 HT 0-2	CSKA 1948 Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	10	4	0	32	9	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	10	2	1	25	8	32
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	13	9	3	1	26	11	30
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	14	9	2	3	33	16	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	7	2	5	23	21	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	6	3	5	20	22	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	4	4	6	15	25	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	2	8	4	9	9	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	3	4	7	14	22	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	3	3	8	8	18	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	3	2	9	12	25	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	2	4	8	11	24	10
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	14	1	6	7	15	26	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botev Vratsa	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-2 L	2-0 W
Cherno More Varna	0-1 L	4-1 W
Spartak Varna	0-1 L	6-1 W
Dunav Ruse	2-2 D	2-1 W
Levski Sofia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Septemvri Sofia	3-2 W	0-1 L
Botev Plovdiv	1-0 W	4-0 W
CSKA Sofia	0-5 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA 1948 Sofia (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botev Vratsa

LWLWDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
02/11	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
24/10	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/10	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
19/09	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
04/09	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
31/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
24/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
16/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-5	5	5	L

CSKA 1948 Sofia

WLWLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
30/10	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	2-1	6-1	3	3	W
23/10	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	3-0	4-0	6	4	W
11/10	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-3	1	8	L
18/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
28/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
23/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
14/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-1	4-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA 1948 Sofia win (48%). Probabilities: Botev Vratsa 25%, draw 27%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 48%.

How many goals are expected in Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Botev Vratsa 1.09 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.61), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.