Football · Bulgaria First League · 21/11, 16:15
Prediction: Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna
Team pages: Spartak Varna · Cherno More Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Spartak Varna1.11
Cherno More Varna1.24
1X2
Spartak Varna
Draw
Cherno More Varna
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Spartak Varna
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Cherno More Varna
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spartak Varna
1–2–3
Cherno More Varna
(6 last)
- Cherno More Varna0-3Spartak Varna
- Cherno More Varna0-0Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna1-3Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna1-1Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna0-2Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna3-2Spartak Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spartak Varna 1492 · Cherno More Varna 1480
| Spartak Varna | Draw | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 32% | 29% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cherno More Varna: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spartak Varna | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.8 | 2.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Varna 1–2–3 Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Spartak Varna |
| 07/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 16/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Cherno More Varna |
| 08/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 22/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Cherno More Varna |
| 07/05/23 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 34 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 32 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | 21 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 16 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 13 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 11 |
| 13 | Botev Vratsa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 9 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spartak Varna | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-6 L | 1-4 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Botev Vratsa | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Slavia Sofia | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| CSKA Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Levski Sofia | 0-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Septemvri Sofia | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 5 L | 3 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cherno More Varna (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spartak Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 30/10 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/11 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 27/10 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/10 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cherno More Varna win (38%). Probabilities: Spartak Varna 32%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 38%.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Spartak Varna 1.11 · Cherno More Varna 1.24), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.