Football · Bulgaria First League · 20/11, 17:00

Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Septemvri Sofia1.11

Lokomotiv Plovdiv1

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Septemvri Sofia Draw Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Septemvri Sofia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLLW

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Septemvri Sofia 2–1–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv (6 last)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-1Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia2-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-1Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia2-3Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1447 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1522

	Septemvri Sofia	Draw	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Our model	37%	32%	31%
Market	38%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv (rating 1447 vs 1522).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Septemvri Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.11
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.96 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:42 +35’	2.45	3.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +11’	2.50	3.11	2.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 2–1–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-1 HT 1-1	Septemvri Sofia
13/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-0 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia
03/10/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	2-2 HT 0-1	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
28/04/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	2-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
16/02/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0-1 HT 0-0	Septemvri Sofia
26/08/24 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	2-3 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	10	4	0	32	9	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	10	2	1	25	8	32
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	13	9	3	1	26	11	30
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	14	9	2	3	33	16	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	7	2	5	23	21	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	6	3	5	20	22	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	4	4	6	15	25	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	2	8	4	9	9	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	3	4	7	14	22	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	3	3	8	8	18	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	3	2	9	12	25	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	2	4	8	11	24	10
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	14	1	6	7	15	26	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Septemvri Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-0 W	1-1 D
Arda Kardzhali	1-2 L	0-1 L
Cherno More Varna	0-2 L	1-0 W
Dunav Ruse	2-3 L	1-2 L
Botev Plovdiv	0-3 L	0-2 L
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-2 L	0-3 L
Botev Vratsa	2-3 L	2-1 W
Slavia Sofia	1-1 D	0-0 D
CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Septemvri Sofia

WWDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/11	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1-2	1-2	1	7	L
27/10	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	4	9	L
11/10	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-3	7	4	L
19/09	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
14/09	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
04/09	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
28/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
23/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

LLLWLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
31/10	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
26/10	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
10/10	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
20/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
13/09	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
06/09	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
28/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
24/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
16/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-2	11	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Septemvri Sofia win (37%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 37%, draw 31%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 32%.

How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Septemvri Sofia 1.11 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.