Football · Bulgaria First League · 22/11, 14:30

Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Team pages: Levski Sofia · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Levski Sofia2.47

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.71

1X2

75% 17% 8%

Levski Sofia Draw Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Levski Sofia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWDWL

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWDDLL

Head-to-head

Levski Sofia 5–1–0 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia (6 last)

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-2Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia4-3Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-2Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia2-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-6Levski Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia2-2Levski Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1602 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1445

	Levski Sofia	Draw	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Our model	75%	17%	8%
Market	75%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1602 vs 1445).
H2H favours Levski Sofia: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Levski Sofia	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.25
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.61 ★
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +2’	1.22	5.25	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +7’	1.25	5.61	10.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 5–1–0 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-2 HT 0-0	Levski Sofia
01/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Levski Sofia	4-3 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
14/09/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-2 HT 0-1	Levski Sofia
23/11/24 Bulgaria First League	Levski Sofia	2-0 HT 2-0	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
20/07/24 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-6 HT 1-4	Levski Sofia
27/11/23 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	2-2 HT 0-1	Levski Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia	14	10	4	0	32	9	34
2	Levski Sofia	13	10	2	1	25	8	32
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	13	9	3	1	26	11	30
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	14	9	2	3	33	16	29
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	7	2	5	23	21	23
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	6	3	5	20	22	21
7	Spartak Varna	14	4	4	6	15	25	16
8	Slavia Sofia	14	2	8	4	9	9	14
9	Cherno More Varna	14	3	4	7	14	22	13
10	Dunav Ruse	14	3	3	8	16	23	12
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	14	3	3	8	8	18	12
12	Septemvri Sofia	14	3	2	9	12	25	11
13	Botev Vratsa	14	2	4	8	11	24	10
14	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	14	1	6	7	15	26	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Levski Sofia	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
CSKA Sofia	0-3 L	0-2 L
Dunav Ruse	1-0 W	2-2 D
Arda Kardzhali	1-1 D	1-3 L
Cherno More Varna	2-0 W	2-2 D
Botev Vratsa	0-0 D	1-1 D
Botev Plovdiv	3-1 W	2-5 L
Spartak Varna	6-0 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Levski Sofia

WWWWWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
31/10	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/10	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
11/10	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
13/09	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
05/09	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
30/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
22/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	2-0	6-0	7	2	W
07/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

LDLDLWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
30/10	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-2	2-5	4	7	L
24/10	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/10	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	10	7	D
20/09	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
16/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
11/09	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	8	D
06/09	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
17/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-2	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (75%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 75%, draw 17%, Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 8%.

How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Levski Sofia 2.47 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0.71), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.