Football · Germany DFB Pokal · 24/08, 18:00
Prediction: Verl vs Hamburg
Team pages: Verl
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Verl1.1
Hamburg2.34
1X2
Verl
Draw
Hamburg
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Verl
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Hamburg
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Verl 1513 · Hamburg 1499
| Verl | Draw | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Market | 15% | 22% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Verl | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 5.2 | 1.1 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Verl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga |
1-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Alemannia Aachen Germany 3. Liga |
1-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | RB Leipzig Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | Bremer SV Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Wolfsburg Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 15/07 | SC Paderborn 07 II Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | VfB Schloss Holte Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 9-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | 1860 Munich Germany 3. Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Hamburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Toulouse Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Everton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Heidenheim Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Rapid Vienna Europe Friendlies |
2-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Verl vs Hamburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamburg win (64%). Probabilities: Verl 15%, draw 21%, Hamburg 64%.
How many goals are expected in Verl vs Hamburg?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Verl 1.1 · Hamburg 2.34), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Verl vs Hamburg?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.