Football · Italy Serie A · 21/11, 20:45

Prediction: Napoli vs Torino

Team pages: Napoli · Torino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Napoli2.1

Torino0.91

1X2

64% 22% 14%

Napoli Draw Torino

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Napoli 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLDWLD

Torino 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWLLD

Head-to-head

Napoli 3–1–2 Torino (6 last)

Napoli2-1Torino
Torino1-0Napoli
Napoli2-0Torino
Torino0-1Napoli
Napoli1-1Torino
Torino3-0Napoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Napoli 1499 · Torino 1479

	Napoli	Draw	Torino
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Napoli: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Napoli	Torino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.05

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.49
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.64 ★
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +8’	1.45	4.20	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +8’	1.49	4.64	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Napoli 3–1–2 Torino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Italy Serie A	Napoli	2-1 HT 1-0	Torino
18/10/25 Italy Serie A	Torino	1-0 HT 1-0	Napoli
27/04/25 Italy Serie A	Napoli	2-0 HT 2-0	Torino
01/12/24 Italy Serie A	Torino	0-1 HT 0-1	Napoli
08/03/24 Italy Serie A	Napoli	1-1 HT 0-0	Torino
07/01/24 Italy Serie A	Torino	3-0 HT 1-0	Napoli

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	25	9	29
2	Inter Milan	11	9	1	1	28	13	28
3	Roma	11	8	3	0	31	10	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	23	13	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	18	10	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	24	15	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	16	14	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	10	15	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	18	14	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	15	17	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	17	20	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	11	16	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	12	22	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	17	25	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	9	17	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	16	29	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	17	25	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	8	21	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	12	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Napoli	Torino
Monza	4-1 W	3-2 W
Roma	3-3 D	0-2 L
Frosinone	3-0 W	0-2 L
Fiorentina	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bologna	1-0 W	1-1 D
Como	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Napoli (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Napoli

LLWDWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lazio Italy Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/11	Juventus Italy Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
28/10	Monza Italy Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	3	W
24/10	Roma Italy Serie A	1-0	3-3	2	5	D
17/10	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	12	2	L
10/10	Frosinone Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
20/09	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
05/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-0	2-3	5	3	L
30/08	Como Italy Serie A	1-2	1-2	2	1	L

Torino

LWLDWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Lecce Italy Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
01/11	Frosinone Italy Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
27/10	Como Italy Serie A	1-0	1-3	5	1	L
23/10	Monza Italy Serie A	1-0	3-2	3	1	W
19/10	Parma Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
12/10	Udinese Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
19/09	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
14/09	Roma Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
05/09	Fiorentina Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
29/08	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Torino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Napoli win (64%). Probabilities: Napoli 64%, draw 22%, Torino 14%.

How many goals are expected in Napoli vs Torino?

The model expects 3 goals (Napoli 2.1 · Torino 0.91), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Torino?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.