Football · Italy Serie A · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: Parma vs Roma

Team pages: Parma · Roma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Parma0.82

Roma2.46

1X2

10% 18% 73%

Parma Draw Roma

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Parma 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLDWL

Roma 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Parma 1–5 Roma (6 last)

Parma2-3Roma
Roma2-1Parma
Parma0-1Roma
Roma5-0Parma
Parma2-0Roma
Roma3-0Parma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parma 1435 · Roma 1579

	Parma	Draw	Roma
Our model	10%	18%	73%
Market	10%	18%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roma (rating 1435 vs 1579).
H2H favours Roma: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parma	Roma
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	2.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	3.6 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.25

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)2.02

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Pinn 9.85
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.85 ★
2	1.27 → 1.27	Pinn 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +26’	9.50	5.25	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +6’	9.85	5.85	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parma 1–0–5 Roma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Italy Serie A	Parma	2-3 HT 0-1	Roma
29/10/25 Italy Serie A	Roma	2-1 HT 0-0	Parma
16/02/25 Italy Serie A	Parma	0-1 HT 0-1	Roma
22/12/24 Italy Serie A	Roma	5-0 HT 2-0	Parma
14/03/21 Italy Serie A	Parma	2-0 HT 1-0	Roma
22/11/20 Italy Serie A	Roma	3-0 HT 3-0	Parma

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	25	9	29
2	Inter Milan	11	9	1	1	28	13	28
3	Roma	11	8	3	0	31	10	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	23	13	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	18	10	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	24	15	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	16	14	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	10	15	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	18	14	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	15	17	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	17	20	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	11	16	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	12	22	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	17	25	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	9	17	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	16	29	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	17	25	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	8	21	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	12	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parma	Roma
Atalanta	3-0 W	2-1 W
Udinese	0-0 D	5-2 W
Torino	0-3 L	2-0 W
Inter Milan	0-3 L	2-2 D
Genoa	2-1 W	2-0 W
Como	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Roma (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parma

LDLWLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bologna Italy Serie A	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
02/11	Atalanta Italy Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
28/10	Udinese Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
24/10	Lazio Italy Serie A	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
19/10	Torino Italy Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
10/10	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	0-3	0-3	1	0	L
20/09	Genoa Italy Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
14/09	Como Italy Serie A	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
06/09	Monza Italy Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
29/08	Juventus Italy Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	5	L

Roma

WWWDDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	2-0	3-0	12	0	W
31/10	Udinese Italy Serie A	4-0	5-2	4	2	W
27/10	Cagliari Italy Serie A	2-1	4-2	7	1	W
24/10	Napoli Italy Serie A	0-1	3-3	11	5	D
17/10	Genoa Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	Como Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
14/09	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
05/09	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	14	1	W
31/08	Lecce Italy Serie A	3-0	4-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parma vs Roma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Roma win (73%). Probabilities: Parma 10%, draw 18%, Roma 73%.

How many goals are expected in Parma vs Roma?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Parma 0.82 · Roma 2.46), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Roma?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.