Football · Italy Serie A · 22/11, 15:00

Prediction: Bologna vs Udinese

Team pages: Bologna · Udinese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Bologna1.86

Udinese1.02

1X2

56% 26% 19%

Bologna Draw Udinese

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bologna 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Udinese 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Bologna 2–3–1 Udinese (6 last)

Bologna1-0Udinese
Udinese0-3Bologna
Udinese0-0Bologna
Bologna1-1Udinese
Bologna1-1Udinese
Udinese3-0Bologna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bologna 1555 · Udinese 1390

	Bologna	Draw	Udinese
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	55%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bologna (rating 1555 vs 1390).
H2H favours Bologna: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bologna	Udinese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.72
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.86 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:54 +20’	1.67	3.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +9’	1.72	3.86	4.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bologna 2–3–1 Udinese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/26 Italy Serie A	Bologna	1-0 HT 0-0	Udinese
22/11/25 Italy Serie A	Udinese	0-3 HT 0-0	Bologna
28/04/25 Italy Serie A	Udinese	0-0 HT 0-0	Bologna
18/08/24 Italy Serie A	Bologna	1-1 HT 0-0	Udinese
28/04/24 Italy Serie A	Bologna	1-1 HT 0-1	Udinese
30/12/23 Italy Serie A	Udinese	3-0 HT 1-0	Bologna

Standings · Italy Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	25	9	29
2	Inter Milan	11	9	1	1	28	13	28
3	Roma	11	8	3	0	31	10	27
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	23	13	24
5	Como	11	7	2	2	18	10	23
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	24	15	20
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	16	14	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	10	15	16
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	18	14	15
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	15	17	14
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	17	20	14
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	11	16	13
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	12	22	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	17	25	9
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	9	17	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	16	29	8
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	17	25	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	8	21	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	12	25	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bologna	Udinese
Parma	2-1 W	0-0 D
Monza	2-1 W	3-2 W
AC Milan	4-2 W	0-2 L
Cagliari	2-0 W	0-1 L
Inter Milan	1-3 L	3-5 L
Lecce	2-1 W	0-3 L
Torino	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Bologna (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bologna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Parma Italy Serie A	0-0	2-1	15	6	W
31/10	Monza Italy Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
28/10	AC Milan Italy Serie A	1-2	4-2	3	2	W
24/10	Cagliari Italy Serie A	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/10	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	7	L
11/10	Lecce Italy Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Torino Italy Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
13/09	Napoli Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
06/09	Sassuolo Italy Serie A	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
31/08	Atalanta Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	1	L

Udinese

WLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Venezia Italy Serie A	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
31/10	Roma Italy Serie A	0-4	2-5	7	2	L
28/10	Parma Italy Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
25/10	AC Milan Italy Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
18/10	Lecce Italy Serie A	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
12/10	Torino Italy Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
19/09	Cagliari Italy Serie A	0-0	0-1	16	2	L
14/09	Inter Milan Italy Serie A	2-2	3-5	1	2	L
07/09	Lazio Italy Serie A	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Monza Italy Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bologna vs Udinese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bologna win (56%). Probabilities: Bologna 56%, draw 26%, Udinese 19%.

How many goals are expected in Bologna vs Udinese?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Bologna 1.86 · Udinese 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.