Football · Peru Liga 1 · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca

Team pages: Alianza Lima · FC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Alianza Lima2.47

FC Cajamarca0.68

1X2

76% 16% 8%

Alianza Lima Draw FC Cajamarca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWWWWLW

FC Cajamarca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 0–1–0 FC Cajamarca (1 last)

FC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Lima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1519 · FC Cajamarca 1449

	Alianza Lima	Draw	FC Cajamarca
Our model	76%	17%	7%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1519 vs 1449).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	FC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.3	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +2’	1.20	6.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 0–1–0 FC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Lima

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	FC Cajamarca
Cienciano	1-0 W	2-5 L
Sporting Cristal	2-3 L	0-5 L
Deportivo Moquegua	1-0 W	0-1 L
Cusco FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
AD Tarma	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Lima

DLDLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
29/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
25/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
18/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
12/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
19/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
06/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
23/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

FC Cajamarca

WLWLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
02/11	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-5	2	7	L
28/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
25/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-4	3	2	L
18/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (76%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 76%, draw 16%, FC Cajamarca 8%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Alianza Lima 2.47 · FC Cajamarca 0.68), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.