Football · Peru Liga 1 · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano

Team pages: Sporting Cristal · Cienciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Sporting Cristal2.37

Cienciano1.09

1X2

65% 21% 15%

Sporting Cristal Draw Cienciano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Cristal 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLWWD

Cienciano 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLWLL

Head-to-head

Sporting Cristal 2–2–2 Cienciano (6 last)

Cienciano3-2Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal2-1Cienciano
Cienciano1-1Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal5-1Cienciano
Cienciano2-1Sporting Cristal
Cienciano2-2Sporting Cristal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1567 · Cienciano 1493

	Sporting Cristal	Draw	Cienciano
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	64%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1567 vs 1493).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Cristal	Cienciano
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.33

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.55 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +2’	1.45	4.33	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:59 +1328’	1.55	4.29	5.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 2–2–2 Cienciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	3-2 HT 1-2	Sporting Cristal
07/11/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-1 HT 0-1	Cienciano
05/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	1-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Cristal
27/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	5-1 HT 1-1	Cienciano
07/07/24 Club Friendly List	Cienciano	2-1 HT 0-1	Sporting Cristal
10/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	2-2 HT 2-1	Sporting Cristal

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Cristal	Cienciano
AD Tarma	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Cajamarca	5-0 W	5-2 W
Alianza Lima	3-2 W	0-1 L
Cusco FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Comerciantes Unidos	4-2 W	1-3 L
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Grau	3-1 W	3-0 W
Deportivo Moquegua	2-1 W	2-0 W
CD Los Chankas	5-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Cristal

LWWWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
02/11	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	5-0	5	7	W
29/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
24/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	12	3	L
18/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	5	1	W
11/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-1	9	6	W
13/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-0	9	4	W
30/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

Cienciano

LWLDWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
04/11	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
25/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	1	6	L
19/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	9	3	W
30/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
23/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
04/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	3-2	5-2	3	2	W
31/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (65%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 65%, draw 21%, Cienciano 15%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Sporting Cristal 2.37 · Cienciano 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.