Football · Denmark Superligaen · 20/11, 19:00

Prediction: AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby

Team pages: AGF Aarhus · Lyngby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

AGF Aarhus1.86

Lyngby1.11

1X2

54% 24% 22%

AGF Aarhus Draw Lyngby

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AGF Aarhus 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWDWLW

Lyngby 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLDLWL

Head-to-head

AGF Aarhus 4–2–0 Lyngby (6 last)

Lyngby2-2AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus2-1Lyngby
Lyngby0-0AGF Aarhus
Lyngby0-2AGF Aarhus
AGF Aarhus1-0Lyngby
Lyngby0-1AGF Aarhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGF Aarhus 1512 · Lyngby 1483

	AGF Aarhus	Draw	Lyngby
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGF Aarhus: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGF Aarhus	Lyngby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.05 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:14 +63’	1.70	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +12’	1.76	4.04	4.25
12:44 +14’	1.75▼	4.05▲	4.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AGF Aarhus 4–2–0 Lyngby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Denmark Superligaen	Lyngby	2-2 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus
03/11/24 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	2-1 HT 1-0	Lyngby
22/09/24 Denmark Superligaen	Lyngby	0-0 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus
22/10/23 Denmark Superligaen	Lyngby	0-2 HT 0-1	AGF Aarhus
27/08/23 Denmark Superligaen	AGF Aarhus	1-0 HT 1-0	Lyngby
30/10/22 Denmark Superligaen	Lyngby	0-1 HT 0-0	AGF Aarhus

Standings · Denmark Superligaen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	29	12	32
2	Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	29	17	32
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	22	13	26
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	26	18	23
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	23	21	22
6	Odense BK	14	4	5	5	16	19	17
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	23	23	16
8	AGF Aarhus	14	3	6	5	19	21	15
9	Silkeborg IF	14	3	6	5	18	24	15
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	19	29	11
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	14	27	11
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	19	33	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGF Aarhus	Lyngby
AC Horsens	2-0 W	1-2 L
Brondby	0-2 L	2-5 L
Viborg	2-1 W	2-0 W
Sonderjyske	3-0 W	1-1 D
FC Nordsjaelland	0-2 L	3-3 D
Silkeborg IF	2-2 D	0-1 L
Midtjylland	0-2 L	2-3 L
Randers FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGF Aarhus

LLDLDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
01/11	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
25/10	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-1	10	7	W
18/10	FC Copenhagen Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
12/10	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	3-0	3-0	3	1	W
20/09	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-0	2-2	2	4	D
13/09	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-2	2-2	8	1	D
02/09	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
30/08	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	0-2	1-2	5	6	L

Lyngby

LDWDLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
30/10	Randers FC Denmark Superligaen	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
25/10	Midtjylland Denmark Superligaen	1-2	2-3	2	1	L
18/10	FC Nordsjaelland Denmark Superligaen	2-0	3-3	1	9	D
11/10	Brondby Denmark Superligaen	0-3	2-5	4	5	L
18/09	Silkeborg IF Denmark Superligaen	0-1	0-4	7	6	L
13/09	Sonderjyske Denmark Superligaen	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
04/09	Viborg Denmark Superligaen	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/08	Odense BK Denmark Superligaen	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
23/08	AC Horsens Denmark Superligaen	0-1	1-2	9	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGF Aarhus win (54%). Probabilities: AGF Aarhus 54%, draw 24%, Lyngby 22%.

How many goals are expected in AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby?

The model expects 2.96 goals (AGF Aarhus 1.86 · Lyngby 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AGF Aarhus vs Lyngby?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.