Football · France Super Cup · 16/08, 20:45
Prediction: Lens vs PSG
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Lens1.13
PSG1.95
1X2
Lens
Draw
PSG
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lens
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
PSG
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lens
0–1–5
PSG
(6 last)
- Lens0-2PSG
- PSG2-0Lens
- Lens1-2PSG
- Lens1-1PSG
- PSG1-0Lens
- Lens0-2PSG
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lens 1523 · PSG 1538
| Lens | Draw | PSG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours PSG: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lens | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.1 | 3.2 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lens 0–1–5 PSG
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 France Ligue 1 | Lens | 0-2 HT 0-1 | PSG |
| 14/09/25 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lens |
| 18/01/25 France Ligue 1 | Lens | 1-2 HT 1-0 | PSG |
| 22/12/24 France Cup | Lens | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PSG |
| 02/11/24 France Ligue 1 | PSG | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lens |
| 14/01/24 France Ligue 1 | Lens | 0-2 HT 0-1 | PSG |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Sunderland Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Villarreal Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Charleroi Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 22/05 | Nice France Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
0-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 21/04 | Toulouse France Cup |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
PSG
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Aston Villa UEFA Super Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 05/08 | Mallorca Elite Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Arsenal UEFA Champions League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 28/04 | Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League |
3-2 | 5-4 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lens vs PSG?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSG win (55%). Probabilities: Lens 20%, draw 25%, PSG 55%.
How many goals are expected in Lens vs PSG?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Lens 1.13 · PSG 1.95), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lens vs PSG?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.