Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup · 19/07, 17:00
Prediction: Derry City vs Tolka Rovers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Derry City2.37
Tolka Rovers0.53
1X2
Derry City
Draw
Tolka Rovers
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Tolka Rovers
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derry City 1464 · Tolka Rovers 1431
| Derry City | Draw | Tolka Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | 80% | 13% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City | Tolka Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.8 | 1.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 10 | D |
Tolka Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Inchicore Athletic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-3 | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/06 | Lucan United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | Inchicore Athletic FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/06 | Malahide Utd Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 19/05 | St Mochtas Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Fairview Rangers AFC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Finglas United Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 29/04 | Wayside Celtic Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 20/04 | Home Farm FC Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | UCD II Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City vs Tolka Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City win (79%). Probabilities: Derry City 79%, draw 14%, Tolka Rovers 7%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Tolka Rovers?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Derry City 2.37 · Tolka Rovers 0.53), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Tolka Rovers?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.