Football · Croatia HNL · 21/11, 18:00

Prediction: NK Rudes vs NK Varazdin

Team pages: NK Rudes · NK Varazdin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

NK Rudes1.03

NK Varazdin1.38

1X2

27% 28% 44%

NK Rudes Draw NK Varazdin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Rudes 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWLWWW

NK Varazdin 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWLLDL

Head-to-head

NK Rudes 0–1–5 NK Varazdin (6 last)

NK Varazdin2-0NK Rudes
NK Rudes0-2NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin1-0NK Rudes
NK Rudes0-0NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin2-0NK Rudes
NK Rudes0-1NK Varazdin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Rudes 1526 · NK Varazdin 1458

	NK Rudes	Draw	NK Varazdin
Our model	27%	30%	44%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Rudes (rating 1526 vs 1458).
H2H favours NK Varazdin: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Rudes	NK Varazdin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.7	2.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.30

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.49 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +22’	3.20	3.30	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	3.49	3.22	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Rudes 0–1–5 NK Varazdin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Rudes
22/04/24 Croatia HNL	NK Rudes	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Varazdin
09/02/24 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Rudes
28/10/23 Croatia HNL	NK Rudes	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Varazdin
12/08/23 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-0 HT 0-0	NK Rudes
12/07/23 Europe Friendlies	NK Rudes	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Varazdin

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	27	11	29
2	Dinamo Zagreb	12	8	1	3	28	15	25
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	22	18	20
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	24	19	19
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	17	14	19
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	19	18	18
7	Slaven Belupo	13	5	1	7	19	28	16
8	NK Rudes	13	5	1	7	16	27	16
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	14	21	11
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	10	25	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Rudes	NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-0 W	1-0 W
Dinamo Zagreb	1-0 W	1-3 L
NK Osijek	1-0 W	0-0 D
HNK Rijeka	1-2 L	1-1 D
HNK Gorica	2-1 W	2-2 D
Slaven Belupo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Istra 1961	2-3 L	0-0 D
Hajduk Split	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudes (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Rudes

WLLLDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
31/10	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
25/10	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/10	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/10	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/09	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	7	7	D
13/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-2	2-3	4	3	L
06/09	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
29/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
21/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	4-1	3	4	W

NK Varazdin

LWDDDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	1-3	3	7	L
01/11	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-1	1-1	0	7	D
24/10	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
18/10	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
11/10	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
14/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
04/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
29/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Rudes vs NK Varazdin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Varazdin win (44%). Probabilities: NK Rudes 27%, draw 28%, NK Varazdin 44%.

How many goals are expected in NK Rudes vs NK Varazdin?

The model expects 2.41 goals (NK Rudes 1.03 · NK Varazdin 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Rudes vs NK Varazdin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.