Football · Germany Super Cup · 22/08, 20:30
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Team pages: Borussia Dortmund · Bayern Munich
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Borussia Dortmund1.24
Bayern Munich2.18
1X2
Borussia Dortmund
Draw
Bayern Munich
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Borussia Dortmund
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Bayern Munich
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Borussia Dortmund
1–2–3
Bayern Munich
(6 last)
- Borussia Dortmund2-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich2-1Borussia Dortmund
- Bayern Munich2-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund1-1Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich0-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund0-4Bayern Munich
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Borussia Dortmund 1540 · Bayern Munich 1621
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1540 vs 1621).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayern Munich | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 3.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 1.7 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Borussia Dortmund 1–2–3 Bayern Munich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Bayern Munich |
| 18/10/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 12/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 30/11/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bayern Munich |
| 30/03/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 04/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Borussia Dortmund | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Bayern Munich |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Borussia Dortmund
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Roma Elite Club Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 09/08 | Arsenal Emirates Cup |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Tokyo Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | Cerezo Osaka Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Fortuna Dusseldorf Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Rot-Weiss Oberhausen Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 08/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Bayern Munich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Heidenheim Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | RB Leipzig Telekom Cup - 45 Mins Play |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 07/08 | Aston Villa Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 04/08 | Jeju SK Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Rottach-Egern Club Friendly List |
6-0 | 15-0 | 25 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Wehen SV Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | VfB Stuttgart Germany DFB Pokal |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | PSG UEFA Champions League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bayern Munich win (58%). Probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 20%, draw 22%, Bayern Munich 58%.
How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Borussia Dortmund 1.24 · Bayern Munich 2.18), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.