Prediction: Arsenal vs Man City
- Man City2-1Arsenal
- Arsenal0-2Man City
- Arsenal1-1Man City
- Arsenal5-1Man City
- Man City2-2Arsenal
- Man City0-0Arsenal
| Arsenal | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (rating 1524 vs 1582).
- H2H favours Man City: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arsenal | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 2.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 3.7 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal 1–3–2 Man City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 England Premier League | Man City | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Arsenal |
| 22/03/26 England EFL Cup | Arsenal | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Man City |
| 21/09/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Man City |
| 02/02/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Man City |
| 22/09/24 England Premier League | Man City | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Arsenal |
| 31/03/24 England Premier League | Man City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Atletico Madrid | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Como Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Borussia Dortmund Emirates Cup |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 05/08 | Real Betis Elite Club Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Girona Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | PSG UEFA Champions League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/05 | Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Man City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Atletico Madrid Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 05/08 | K League All Stars Elite Club Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Inter Milan Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Chelsea England FA Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/05 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Southampton England FA Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arsenal vs Man City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal win (37%). Probabilities: Arsenal 37%, draw 27%, Man City 36%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Man City?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Arsenal 1.39 · Man City 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Man City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.