Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 22/07, 11:00
Prediction: Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.5Total
Port Darwin FC2.92
Casuarina FC1.58
1X2
Port Darwin FC
Draw
Casuarina FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Port Darwin FC
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Casuarina FC
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Port Darwin FC
4–2
Casuarina FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Port Darwin FC 1551 · Casuarina FC 1431
| Port Darwin FC | Draw | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 17% | 18% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Darwin FC (rating 1551 vs 1431).
- H2H favours Port Darwin FC: 4-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Port Darwin FC | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.9 / 3.1 | 2.2 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 7 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Darwin FC 4–0–2 Casuarina FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 1-5 HT 1-3 | Port Darwin FC |
| 07/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Port Darwin FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Casuarina FC |
| 05/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Port Darwin FC |
| 12/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 28/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 23/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 65 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Port Darwin FC | Casuarina FC |
|---|---|---|
| Darwin Olympic | 4-3 W | 2-4 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 10-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Mindil Aces | 0-8 L | 0-3 L |
| Garuda FC | 5-3 W | 6-0 W |
| Hellenic AC | 6-2 W | 5-1 W |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Casuarina FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 10-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Casuarina FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Port Darwin FC win (64%). Probabilities: Port Darwin FC 64%, draw 18%, Casuarina FC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC?
The model expects 4.5 goals (Port Darwin FC 2.92 · Casuarina FC 1.58), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.