Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 22/07, 13:00
Prediction: Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.45Total
Mindil Aces2.83
Darwin Olympic1.63
1X2
Mindil Aces
Draw
Darwin Olympic
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mindil Aces
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Darwin Olympic
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mindil Aces
1–4–1
Darwin Olympic
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mindil Aces 1583 · Darwin Olympic 1496
| Mindil Aces | Draw | Darwin Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| Market | 62% | 18% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.45 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1583 vs 1496).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mindil Aces | Darwin Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 1 | 3.6 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 0.3 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mindil Aces 1–4–1 Darwin Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Mindil Aces |
| 08/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Mindil Aces |
| 30/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Darwin Olympic |
| 20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Mindil Aces | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Darwin Olympic |
| 28/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Mindil Aces |
| 03/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Mindil Aces |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 65 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mindil Aces | Darwin Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Casuarina FC | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Hellenic AC | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 6-1 W | 7-1 W |
| University Azzurri FC | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Port Darwin FC | 8-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Garuda FC | 4-0 W | 9-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mindil Aces
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
Darwin Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-1 | 7-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 02/07 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
5-1 | 9-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 7-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mindil Aces win (62%). Probabilities: Mindil Aces 62%, draw 18%, Darwin Olympic 20%.
How many goals are expected in Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic?
The model expects 4.45 goals (Mindil Aces 2.83 · Darwin Olympic 1.63), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mindil Aces vs Darwin Olympic?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.