Football · Brazil Paulista Women · 14/08, 00:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo (W) vs Santos (W)

Team pages: Sao Paulo (W) · Santos (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Sao Paulo (W)1.76

Santos (W)0.79

1X2

60% 24% 16%

Sao Paulo (W) Draw Santos (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWWWW

Santos (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWWDWL

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo (W) 4–1–1 Santos (W) (6 last)

Sao Paulo (W)3-0Santos (W)
Santos (W)2-2Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)1-2Santos (W)
Santos (W)0-2Sao Paulo (W)
Santos (W)0-4Sao Paulo (W)
Santos (W)2-3Sao Paulo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo (W) 1601 · Santos (W) 1506

	Sao Paulo (W)	Draw	Santos (W)
Our model	59%	25%	15%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1601 vs 1506).
H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo (W)	Santos (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.4	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +6’	1.48	3.75	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo (W) 4–1–1 Santos (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Santos (W)
04/09/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Santos (W)	2-2 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo (W)
07/05/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Sao Paulo (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Santos (W)
27/09/24 Brazil Paulista Women	Santos (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo (W)
08/06/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Santos (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Sao Paulo (W)
14/11/23 Brazil Paulista Women	Santos (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	Sao Paulo (W)

Standings · Brazil Paulista Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras (W)	6	4	1	1	9	2	13
2	Ferroviaria (W)	5	4	0	1	12	5	12
3	Corinthians (W)	6	3	1	2	14	6	10
4	Sao Paulo (W)	5	3	0	2	6	4	9
5	Santos (W)	5	1	3	1	5	5	6
6	Bragantino (W)	5	1	3	1	4	9	6
7	Taubate (W)	6	1	1	4	6	9	4
8	Mirassol (W)	6	0	1	5	2	18	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo (W)	Santos (W)
Bragantino (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Palmeiras (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Taubate (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sao Paulo (W)

LWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
02/08	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
28/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
25/07	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
22/07	Vasco da Gama (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
18/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/07	Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	1-0	3-0	15	2	W
25/05	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
22/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Santos (W)

DLDLDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	1-4	0	2	L
02/08	EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
29/07	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
25/07	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
28/05	Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Copa do Brazil Women	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
25/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-3	0	2	L
22/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
17/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
15/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo (W) vs Santos (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo (W) win (60%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo (W) 60%, draw 24%, Santos (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo (W) vs Santos (W)?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Sao Paulo (W) 1.76 · Santos (W) 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo (W) vs Santos (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.