Football · Latvia Virsliga · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Riga FC vs RFS

Team pages: Riga FC · RFS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Riga FC1.93

RFS1.72

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Riga FC Draw RFS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWWWWD

RFS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Riga FC 2–3–1 RFS (6 last)

RFS2-3Riga FC
RFS3-3Riga FC
Riga FC2-1RFS
RFS3-3Riga FC
Riga FC3-4RFS
RFS0-0Riga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC 1581 · RFS 1588

	Riga FC	Draw	RFS
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Riga FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC	RFS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	2.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.6	3.9 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +17’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC 2–3–1 RFS

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Latvia Cup	RFS	2-3 HT 1-1	Riga FC
23/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	3-3 HT 0-1	Riga FC
17/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	2-1 HT 2-0	RFS
28/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	3-3 HT 2-1	Riga FC
07/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	3-4 HT 0-2	RFS
25/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	0-0 HT 0-0	Riga FC

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	35	28	5	2	87	24	89
2	Riga FC	35	25	8	2	95	33	83
3	FK Auda	35	21	7	7	61	38	70
4	BFC Daugavpils	35	14	9	12	42	37	51
5	FK Liepaja	35	13	9	13	49	49	48
6	SK Super Nova	35	11	6	18	35	53	39
7	FK Jelgava	35	8	8	19	37	61	32
8	SC Grobinas	35	6	11	18	27	64	29
9	Tukums 2000	35	5	10	20	44	67	25
10	Ogre United	35	4	7	24	34	85	19

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC	RFS
Ogre United	0-0 D	3-0 W
SC Grobinas	5-2 W	3-0 W
SK Super Nova	2-1 W	3-0 W
Tukums 2000	2-0 W	2-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	4-2 W
FK Auda	2-2 D	1-1 D
BFC Daugavpils	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Liepaja	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: RFS (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Riga FC

DLDDWWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	10	9	D
26/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	4-0	5-2	5	6	W
18/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
10/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	11	8	W
11/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D

RFS

DWDWDWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
25/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	3-0	8	1	W
19/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	11	1	W
15/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
11/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	4-2	7	5	W
20/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	11	6	D
13/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
07/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
23/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-3	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC vs RFS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC win (42%). Probabilities: Riga FC 42%, draw 24%, RFS 34%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC vs RFS?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Riga FC 1.93 · RFS 1.72), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC vs RFS?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.