Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 13/08, 22:30
Prediction: Cumbaya vs CD Vargas Torres
Team pages: Cumbaya · CD Vargas Torres
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.54Total
Cumbaya0.99
CD Vargas Torres0.56
1X2
Cumbaya
Draw
CD Vargas Torres
Markets
Under 1.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cumbaya
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
CD Vargas Torres
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cumbaya
1–2–2
CD Vargas Torres
(5 last)
- CD Vargas Torres0-0Cumbaya
- CD Vargas Torres4-1Cumbaya
- Cumbaya1-1CD Vargas Torres
- Cumbaya2-1CD Vargas Torres
- CD Vargas Torres4-0Cumbaya
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cumbaya 1520 · CD Vargas Torres 1496
| Cumbaya | Draw | CD Vargas Torres | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 37% | 19% |
| Market | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.54 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours CD Vargas Torres: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cumbaya | CD Vargas Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 11/44/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4 | 1.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cumbaya 1–2–2 CD Vargas Torres
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cumbaya |
| 30/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | CD Vargas Torres | 4-1 HT 0-1 | Cumbaya |
| 26/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CD Vargas Torres |
| 22/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 2-1 HT 2-0 | CD Vargas Torres |
| 14/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | CD Vargas Torres | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Cumbaya |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 37 |
| 2 | Club 9 de Octubre | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 35 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 34 |
| 4 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 31 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 17 | 29 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 27 |
| 7 | Cumbaya | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 23 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 23 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 28 | 9 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 30 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cumbaya | CD Vargas Torres |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| El Nacional | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| 22 de Julio | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Independiente Juniors | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cumbaya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 30/07 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/07 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/07 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/07 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | D |
CD Vargas Torres
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 17/07 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 09/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cumbaya vs CD Vargas Torres?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cumbaya win (45%). Probabilities: Cumbaya 45%, draw 34%, CD Vargas Torres 21%.
How many goals are expected in Cumbaya vs CD Vargas Torres?
The model expects 1.54 goals (Cumbaya 0.99 · CD Vargas Torres 0.56), with a 55% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cumbaya vs CD Vargas Torres?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.