Football · Finland Kolmonen · 12/08, 18:00

Prediction: KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina

Team pages: KPV Akatemia · Sporting Kristina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

KPV Akatemia1.57

Sporting Kristina2.19

1X2

27% 21% 51%

KPV Akatemia Draw Sporting Kristina

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KPV Akatemia 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLLL

Sporting Kristina 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLDL

Head-to-head

KPV Akatemia 2–1–3 Sporting Kristina (6 last)

Sporting Kristina3-1KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia2-0Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina3-2KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia4-4Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina1-0KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia3-1Sporting Kristina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KPV Akatemia 1440 · Sporting Kristina 1497

	KPV Akatemia	Draw	Sporting Kristina
Our model	27%	22%	51%
Market	28%	21%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Kristina (rating 1440 vs 1497).
H2H favours Sporting Kristina: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KPV Akatemia	Sporting Kristina
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 3	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.33

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:51 +13’	3.25	4.33	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KPV Akatemia 2–1–3 Sporting Kristina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	3-1 HT 1-0	KPV Akatemia
24/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	2-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kristina
04/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	3-2	KPV Akatemia
01/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	4-4	Sporting Kristina
07/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	Sporting Kristina	1-0 HT 0-0	KPV Akatemia
21/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	3-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kristina

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	13	10	2	1	38	10	32
2	FC Kiisto	14	9	3	2	39	17	30
3	Virkia	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
4	FC Ylivieska	13	6	2	5	31	30	20
5	VPV Pallo-Veikot	13	6	2	5	18	18	20
6	SIF	14	5	3	6	23	26	18
7	SJK-j	14	4	4	6	21	23	16
8	Sporting Kristina	13	4	3	6	16	18	15
9	LBK	14	5	0	9	21	36	15
10	Nykarleby IK	13	3	4	6	17	32	13
11	KPV Akatemia	14	2	1	11	27	47	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KPV Akatemia	Sporting Kristina
LBK	1-3 L	2-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-1 L	1-2 L
Virkia	2-4 L	2-0 W
SJK-j	3-6 L	0-0 D
SIF	2-3 L	1-2 L
FC Ylivieska	5-3 W	0-2 L
Nykarleby IK	1-2 L	1-1 D
VIFK	1-7 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Kristina (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KPV Akatemia

LWLWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	LBK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	8	3	L
04/08	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
29/07	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
23/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
16/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-6	2	2	L
01/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	1	1	L
23/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-3	1	7	W
18/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-4	1-7	0	1	L

Sporting Kristina

WWWLWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
30/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
16/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
10/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
02/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
15/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
10/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
06/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
27/05	LBK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
20/05	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Kristina win (51%). Probabilities: KPV Akatemia 27%, draw 21%, Sporting Kristina 51%.

How many goals are expected in KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina?

The model expects 3.76 goals (KPV Akatemia 1.57 · Sporting Kristina 2.19), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in KPV Akatemia vs Sporting Kristina?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.