Football · New Zealand Northern League · 29/08, 05:00

Prediction: Bay Olympic vs Birkenhead United

Team pages: Bay Olympic · Birkenhead United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Bay Olympic0.99

Birkenhead United2.99

1X2

9% 14% 78%

Bay Olympic Draw Birkenhead United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

0-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Bay Olympic 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Birkenhead United 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bay Olympic 0–6 Birkenhead United (6 last)

Bay Olympic2-6Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United6-0Bay Olympic
Bay Olympic1-5Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United3-0Bay Olympic
Birkenhead United3-1Bay Olympic
Bay Olympic1-2Birkenhead United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bay Olympic 1438 · Birkenhead United 1598

	Bay Olympic	Draw	Birkenhead United
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	8%	13%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1438 vs 1598).
H2H favours Birkenhead United: 6-0-0.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bay Olympic	Birkenhead United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.6	2.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	4.4 / 8.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

111.00

X7.00

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.88

2 (-2.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.13 ★
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:00 +10’	11.00	7.00	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +6’	10.45	7.13	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay Olympic 0–0–6 Birkenhead United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 New Zealand Cup	Bay Olympic	2-6 HT 1-3	Birkenhead United
23/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	6-0 HT 3-0	Bay Olympic
09/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Bay Olympic	1-5 HT 1-4	Birkenhead United
03/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	3-0 HT 1-0	Bay Olympic
31/07/24 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	3-1 HT 1-0	Bay Olympic
13/04/24 New Zealand Northern League	Bay Olympic	1-2 HT 0-1	Birkenhead United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	21	13	5	3	38	9	44
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	21	10	5	6	34	31	35
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	21	7	3	11	32	37	24
9	Melville United	21	6	2	13	24	47	20
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	21	3	3	15	22	51	12
12	Manukau United	21	2	1	18	13	71	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bay Olympic	Birkenhead United
Auckland United FC	1-3 L	4-0 W
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-5 L	1-1 D
Auckland FC II	4-3 W	2-0 W
Auckland City	1-5 L	3-2 W
East Coast Bays	2-2 D	3-1 W
Melville United	1-1 D	4-1 W
Fencibles United	1-2 L	0-0 D
Tauranga City AFC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Manukau United	1-0 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	7 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Birkenhead United (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bay Olympic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
15/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-5	0	2	L
01/08	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-1	4-3	4	4	W
29/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	1-4	1-5	2	2	L
18/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
04/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-3	1-4	4	3	L
27/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-2	10	3	L
20/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
06/06	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W

Birkenhead United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
08/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	4-0	6-1	9	2	W
01/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	13	4	W
18/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
11/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-0	11	8	W
28/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-1	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bay Olympic vs Birkenhead United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birkenhead United win (78%). Probabilities: Bay Olympic 9%, draw 14%, Birkenhead United 78%.

How many goals are expected in Bay Olympic vs Birkenhead United?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Bay Olympic 0.99 · Birkenhead United 2.99), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bay Olympic vs Birkenhead United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.