Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JFK Ventspils

Team pages: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II · JFK Ventspils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.61

JFK Ventspils1.79

1X2

34% 24% 42%

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Draw JFK Ventspils

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWLDL

JFK Ventspils 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLDLL

Head-to-head

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1–3–2 JFK Ventspils (6 last)

JFK Ventspils2-2FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
JFK Ventspils4-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-3JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils0-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-1JFK Ventspils
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-1JFK Ventspils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1446 · JFK Ventspils 1458

	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	Draw	JFK Ventspils
Our model	34%	24%	41%
Market	35%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JFK Ventspils: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	JFK Ventspils
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.1	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.68 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.30 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:58 +6’	2.38	3.80	2.30
08:42 +19’	2.60▲	3.80	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:01	2.64	3.61	2.13
14:42 +16’	2.68▲	3.66▲	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1–3–2 JFK Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-2 HT 1-2	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
22/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	4-1 HT 2-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
21/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-3 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils
02/08/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
06/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils
30/09/23 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-1 HT 1-0	JFK Ventspils

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	16	13	2	1	44	14	41
2	Metta/LU	16	13	2	1	69	14	41
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	16	11	3	2	27	18	36
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	16	10	5	1	34	15	35
5	JDFS Alberts	16	8	4	4	32	23	28
6	Marupes SC	17	8	1	8	28	26	25
7	SK Super Nova II	17	6	5	6	24	25	23
8	Riga FC II	16	6	2	8	23	30	20
9	Skanstes SK	16	6	1	9	30	32	19
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	16	3	3	10	21	45	12
11	RFS II	16	3	3	10	22	45	12
12	JFK Ventspils	16	2	5	9	18	28	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	16	2	4	10	19	43	10
14	Rezeknes FA	16	1	2	13	13	46	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	JFK Ventspils
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-4 L	1-1 D
JDFS Alberts	1-1 D	1-3 L
Metta/LU	0-9 L	0-1 L
SK Super Nova II	1-3 L	0-2 L
Valmiera FC	1-4 L	0-2 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-1 D	1-2 L
Rezeknes FA	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

WDLLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
03/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
27/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-6	0-9	0	0	L
20/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
27/06	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
14/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-4	9	1	L
31/05	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-6	–	–	L
24/05	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
16/05	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	4-1	–	–	W

JFK Ventspils

LLWLDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
28/06	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
14/06	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-2	9	7	L
09/05	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JFK Ventspils?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JFK Ventspils win (42%). Probabilities: FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 34%, draw 24%, JFK Ventspils 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JFK Ventspils?

The model expects 3.4 goals (FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.61 · JFK Ventspils 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Tukums 2000/TSS II vs JFK Ventspils?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.