Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 21/11, 17:30

Prediction: GAIS vs Vasteras SK

Team pages: GAIS · Vasteras SK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

GAIS1.44

Vasteras SK0.88

1X2

50% 28% 23%

GAIS Draw Vasteras SK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

GAIS 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLDWWW

Vasteras SK 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

GAIS 3–3 Vasteras SK (6 last)

Vasteras SK0-1GAIS
Vasteras SK2-3GAIS
GAIS2-0Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK2-1GAIS
GAIS0-2Vasteras SK
Vasteras SK3-0GAIS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GAIS 1537 · Vasteras SK 1529

	GAIS	Draw	Vasteras SK
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GAIS	Vasteras SK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.94 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.66
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +15’	1.80	3.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	1.94	3.66	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GAIS 3–0–3 Vasteras SK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	0-1 HT 0-0	GAIS
14/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Vasteras SK	2-3 HT 0-3	GAIS
11/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	2-0 HT 2-0	Vasteras SK
29/10/23 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	2-1 HT 0-1	GAIS
24/07/23 Sweden Superettan	GAIS	0-2 HT 0-1	Vasteras SK
05/10/21 Sweden Superettan	Vasteras SK	3-0 HT 2-0	GAIS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby	28	18	4	6	60	23	58
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	58	35	58
3	Djurgarden	28	16	4	8	56	27	52
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	50	33	49
5	Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	42	31	46
6	Vasteras SK	28	13	6	9	40	38	45
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	42	36	41
8	AIK	28	11	8	9	46	49	41
9	GAIS	28	11	7	10	36	28	40
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	36	46	39
11	Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	39	44	35
12	Mjällby AIF	28	6	10	12	30	43	28
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	24	42	26
14	Degerfors	28	5	5	18	23	48	20
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	33	60	20
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	20	52	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GAIS	Vasteras SK
Degerfors	2-1 W	3-0 W
AIK	2-1 W	4-1 W
IFK Goteborg	1-1 D	0-1 L
Orgryte IS	2-4 L	0-0 D
Sirius	0-1 L	0-1 L
Mjällby AIF	3-0 W	1-0 W
BK Hacken	0-0 D	3-1 W
Brommapojkarna	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vasteras SK (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GAIS

WDLWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
02/11	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
29/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/10	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	8	D
18/10	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
10/10	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
20/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
14/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
05/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
31/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	7	4	W

Vasteras SK

WLWWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
01/11	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
28/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
23/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-2	10	1	L
18/10	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/10	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
19/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GAIS vs Vasteras SK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GAIS win (50%). Probabilities: GAIS 50%, draw 28%, Vasteras SK 23%.

How many goals are expected in GAIS vs Vasteras SK?

The model expects 2.32 goals (GAIS 1.44 · Vasteras SK 0.88), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in GAIS vs Vasteras SK?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.