Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 22/11, 14:00

Prediction: Sirius vs Djurgarden

Team pages: Sirius · Djurgarden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Sirius1.34

Djurgarden1.28

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Sirius Draw Djurgarden

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sirius 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLLWL

Djurgarden 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Sirius 1–2–3 Djurgarden (6 last)

Sirius1-1Djurgarden
Djurgarden2-3Sirius
Djurgarden8-2Sirius
Sirius0-1Djurgarden
Sirius0-1Djurgarden
Djurgarden2-2Sirius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sirius 1514 · Djurgarden 1568

	Sirius	Draw	Djurgarden
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgarden (rating 1514 vs 1568).
H2H favours Djurgarden: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sirius	Djurgarden
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.2	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.44
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +7’	2.40	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +7’	2.44	3.57	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sirius 1–2–3 Djurgarden

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Club Friendly List	Sirius	1-1 HT 0-1	Djurgarden
18/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	2-3 HT 1-2	Sirius
29/09/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	8-2 HT 4-1	Sirius
05/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	0-1 HT 0-0	Djurgarden
25/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	0-1 HT 0-0	Djurgarden
28/06/24 Club Friendly List	Djurgarden	2-2 HT 0-0	Sirius

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby	28	18	4	6	60	23	58
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	58	35	58
3	Djurgarden	28	16	4	8	56	27	52
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	50	33	49
5	Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	42	31	46
6	Vasteras SK	28	13	6	9	40	38	45
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	42	36	41
8	AIK	28	11	8	9	46	49	41
9	GAIS	28	11	7	10	36	28	40
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	36	46	39
11	Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	39	44	35
12	Mjällby AIF	28	6	10	12	30	43	28
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	24	42	26
14	Degerfors	28	5	5	18	23	48	20
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	33	60	20
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	20	52	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sirius	Djurgarden
Kalmar FF	0-1 L	1-0 W
Halmstad	2-0 W	1-2 L
Hammarby	0-2 L	1-0 W
Elfsborg	2-2 D	1-2 L
GAIS	1-0 W	2-0 W
Orgryte IS	2-1 W	2-2 D
Degerfors	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sirius

LWWWWDLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
03/11	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
29/10	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	8	6	L
24/10	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	12	3	L
18/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
19/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Djurgarden

WWWLWWDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
01/11	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
28/10	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
24/10	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
16/10	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
11/10	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
20/09	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
14/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
07/09	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
03/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sirius vs Djurgarden?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sirius win (38%). Probabilities: Sirius 38%, draw 27%, Djurgarden 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Djurgarden?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Sirius 1.34 · Djurgarden 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sirius vs Djurgarden?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.