Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 21/11, 15:00

Prediction: AIK vs Degerfors

Team pages: AIK · Degerfors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

AIK1.8

Degerfors1.65

1X2

41% 24% 35%

AIK Draw Degerfors

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AIK 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLLDWDLW

Degerfors 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

AIK 3–2–1 Degerfors (6 last)

Degerfors2-1AIK
AIK3-3Degerfors
Degerfors0-1AIK
AIK3-0Degerfors
AIK1-1Degerfors
AIK2-0Degerfors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AIK 1468 · Degerfors 1418

	AIK	Draw	Degerfors
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIK (rating 1468 vs 1418).
H2H favours AIK: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AIK	Degerfors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	0.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X4.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.05
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.92 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +3’	2.20	4.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +10’	2.22	4.00	2.80
01:14 +8’	2.14▼	4.05▲	2.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AIK 3–2–1 Degerfors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	2-1 HT 1-1	AIK
17/01/26 Club Friendly List	AIK	3-3 HT 1-2	Degerfors
24/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-1 HT 0-1	AIK
13/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	3-0 HT 1-0	Degerfors
14/02/25 Sweden Cup	AIK	1-1 HT 1-0	Degerfors
18/09/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	AIK	2-0 HT 1-0	Degerfors

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby	28	18	4	6	60	23	58
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	58	35	58
3	Djurgarden	28	16	4	8	56	27	52
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	50	33	49
5	Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	42	31	46
6	Vasteras SK	28	13	6	9	40	38	45
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	42	36	41
8	AIK	28	11	8	9	46	49	41
9	GAIS	28	11	7	10	36	28	40
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	36	46	39
11	Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	39	44	35
12	Mjällby AIF	28	6	10	12	30	43	28
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	24	42	26
14	Degerfors	28	5	5	18	23	48	20
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	33	60	20
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	20	52	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AIK	Degerfors
BK Hacken	3-2 W	0-4 L
GAIS	1-2 L	1-2 L
Elfsborg	2-2 D	0-2 L
Sirius	2-1 W	0-2 L
Halmstad	1-2 L	2-0 W
Mjällby AIF	1-1 D	1-1 D
Vasteras SK	1-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: AIK (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AIK

DLDLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
02/11	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
27/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
24/10	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
17/10	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
10/10	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	5-6	11	5	L
20/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
16/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
12/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-4	5	1	L
07/09	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Degerfors

LWLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	3	0	L
01/11	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
28/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
24/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-4	0-4	6	2	L
19/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	10	3	L
10/10	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
20/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
29/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AIK vs Degerfors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AIK win (41%). Probabilities: AIK 41%, draw 24%, Degerfors 35%.

How many goals are expected in AIK vs Degerfors?

The model expects 3.45 goals (AIK 1.8 · Degerfors 1.65), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AIK vs Degerfors?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.