Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 21/11, 15:00

Prediction: Mjällby AIF vs Malmo FF

Team pages: Mjällby AIF · Malmo FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Mjällby AIF1.04

Malmo FF1.29

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Mjällby AIF Draw Malmo FF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mjällby AIF 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLLWDD

Malmo FF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLDWLD

Head-to-head

Mjällby AIF 4–1–1 Malmo FF (6 last)

Malmo FF2-3Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF4-0Malmo FF
Malmo FF1-3Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF1-1Malmo FF
Malmo FF2-0Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF2-1Malmo FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjällby AIF 1497 · Malmo FF 1495

	Mjällby AIF	Draw	Malmo FF
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mjällby AIF: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjällby AIF	Malmo FF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.15 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +20’	3.00	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +10’	3.15	3.46	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjällby AIF 4–1–1 Malmo FF

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-3 HT 0-1	Mjällby AIF
14/03/26 Sweden Cup	Mjällby AIF	4-0 HT 2-0	Malmo FF
09/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	1-3 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF
30/06/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-1 HT 0-1	Malmo FF
29/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-0 HT 2-0	Mjällby AIF
13/07/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	2-1 HT 1-0	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby	28	18	4	6	60	23	58
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	58	35	58
3	Djurgarden	28	16	4	8	56	27	52
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	50	33	49
5	Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	42	31	46
6	Vasteras SK	28	13	6	9	40	38	45
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	42	36	41
8	AIK	28	11	8	9	46	49	41
9	GAIS	28	11	7	10	36	28	40
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	36	46	39
11	Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	39	44	35
12	Mjällby AIF	28	6	10	12	30	43	28
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	24	42	26
14	Degerfors	28	5	5	18	23	48	20
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	33	60	20
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	20	52	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjällby AIF	Malmo FF
Kalmar FF	0-0 D	1-0 W
Orgryte IS	2-1 W	4-1 W
Hammarby	0-2 L	1-2 L
Vasteras SK	0-1 L	0-2 L
AIK	1-1 D	0-0 D
BK Hacken	1-1 D	0-1 L
IFK Goteborg	1-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Malmo FF (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mjällby AIF

LDDLDLLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
02/11	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
29/10	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
25/10	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
18/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
16/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
07/09	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-4	4	5	L

Malmo FF

WDWLWLDWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
01/11	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
28/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
23/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
12/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
13/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjällby AIF vs Malmo FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Malmo FF win (42%). Probabilities: Mjällby AIF 30%, draw 28%, Malmo FF 42%.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby AIF vs Malmo FF?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Mjällby AIF 1.04 · Malmo FF 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Malmo FF?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.