Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Derry City vs St Patricks

Team pages: Derry City · St Patricks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Derry City1.25

St Patricks1.06

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Derry City Draw St Patricks

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Derry City 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLDWDW

St Patricks 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Derry City 2–4–0 St Patricks (6 last)

St Patricks1-1Derry City
Derry City0-0St Patricks
St Patricks0-0Derry City
Derry City2-2St Patricks
St Patricks0-1Derry City
Derry City1-0St Patricks

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Derry City: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derry City	St Patricks
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.94

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:52

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.07 → 3.07	Pinn 3.07
X	3.33 → 3.33	Pinn 3.33
2	2.33 → 2.33	Pinn 2.33

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:50 +182’	3.07	3.33	2.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 2–4–0 St Patricks

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	1-1 HT 1-0	Derry City
22/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	0-0 HT 0-0	St Patricks
16/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	0-0 HT 0-0	Derry City
29/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	2-2 HT 0-1	St Patricks
23/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	St Patricks	0-1 HT 0-1	Derry City
05/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division	Derry City	1-0 HT 0-0	St Patricks

Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Patricks	32	17	8	7	52	25	59
2	Bohemians Dublin	32	17	8	7	57	38	59
3	Shamrock Rovers	31	17	8	6	49	31	59
4	Derry City	32	9	14	9	45	42	41
5	Dundalk	33	10	11	12	50	55	41
6	Shelbourne	32	9	13	10	42	45	40
7	Galway United	32	9	11	12	42	48	38
8	Waterford FC	32	7	13	12	44	54	34
9	Drogheda United	32	8	10	14	38	51	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	5	8	19	24	54	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derry City	St Patricks
Galway United	1-0 W	3-0 W
Waterford FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
Shelbourne	1-0 W	2-1 W
Shamrock Rovers	3-3 D	2-0 W
Sligo Rovers	2-0 W	1-0 W
Drogheda United	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derry City

DWLDWLDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/09	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
11/09	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
30/08	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-1	3-3	3	6	D
21/08	Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	3-5	3	3	L
07/08	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
02/08	St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
03/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	2-4	5	3	L
26/06	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
22/06	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	2	7	D

St Patricks

WDDDWWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
14/09	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	4-0	3	3	W
11/09	Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
28/08	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
21/08	Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
09/08	Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/07	Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
10/07	Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/07	Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division	3-0	3-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derry City vs St Patricks?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City win (39%). Probabilities: Derry City 39%, draw 31%, St Patricks 30%.

How many goals are expected in Derry City vs St Patricks?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Derry City 1.25 · St Patricks 1.06), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patricks?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.