Football · Australia Tasmania Championship · 31/07, 12:15
Prediction: Glenorchy Knights Reserves vs University of Tasmania
Team pages: Glenorchy Knights Reserves · University of Tasmania
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.67Total
Glenorchy Knights Reserves2.56
University of Tasmania2.1
1X2
Glenorchy Knights Reserves
Draw
University of Tasmania
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-2
Recent form · 10 last
Glenorchy Knights Reserves
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
University of Tasmania
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Glenorchy Knights Reserves
2–4
University of Tasmania
(6 last)
- University of Tasmania1-2Glenorchy Knights Reserves
- Glenorchy Knights Reserves2-13University of Tasmania
- Glenorchy Knights Reserves3-0University of Tasmania
- University of Tasmania6-1Glenorchy Knights Reserves
- Glenorchy Knights Reserves0-1University of Tasmania
- University of Tasmania5-2Glenorchy Knights Reserves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Glenorchy Knights Reserves 1390 · University of Tasmania 1444
| Glenorchy Knights Reserves | Draw | University of Tasmania | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 20% | 32% |
| Market | 48% | 20% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.67 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University of Tasmania (rating 1390 vs 1444).
- H2H favours University of Tasmania: 4-0-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Glenorchy Knights Reserves | University of Tasmania | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 4.6 | 1.9 / 4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 2 | 0.7 / 2.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.3 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Glenorchy Knights Reserves 2–0–4 University of Tasmania
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves |
| 09/08/24 Australia Tasmania Championship | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 2-13 HT 1-6 | University of Tasmania |
| 09/07/22 Australia Tasmania Championship | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 3-0 HT 1-0 | University of Tasmania |
| 26/03/22 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 6-1 HT 2-0 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves |
| 26/06/21 Australia Tasmania Championship | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 0-1 HT 0-0 | University of Tasmania |
| 08/05/21 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 5-2 HT 2-1 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves |
Standings · Australia Tasmania Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart FC 2 | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Hobart City FC | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 24 | 28 |
| 3 | New Town Eagles | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 48 | 17 | 26 |
| 4 | Olympia FC Warriors | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras Reserves | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 34 | 22 |
| 6 | Taroona | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 21 |
| 7 | Hobart United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 62 | 8 |
| 8 | University of Tasmania | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 53 | 7 |
| 9 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Glenorchy Knights Reserves | University of Tasmania |
|---|---|---|
| New Town Eagles | 0-9 L | 1-1 D |
| Olympia FC Warriors | 0-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Clarence Zebras Reserves | 0-8 L | 4-1 W |
| South Hobart FC 2 | 0-6 L | 0-5 L |
| Hobart City FC | 1-3 L | 2-5 L |
| Taroona | 2-2 D | 0-10 L |
| Hobart United | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 6 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: University of Tasmania (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Glenorchy Knights Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-4 | 0-9 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-5 | 0-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 26/06 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-2 | 0-6 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 17/04 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
University of Tasmania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/06 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-6 | 0-10 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-3 | 3-6 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Glenorchy Knights Reserves vs University of Tasmania?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Glenorchy Knights Reserves win (48%). Probabilities: Glenorchy Knights Reserves 48%, draw 20%, University of Tasmania 32%.
How many goals are expected in Glenorchy Knights Reserves vs University of Tasmania?
The model expects 4.67 goals (Glenorchy Knights Reserves 2.56 · University of Tasmania 2.1), with a 53% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Glenorchy Knights Reserves vs University of Tasmania?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.