Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: FA Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu FC Charma

Team pages: FA Tartu Kalev · Tabasalu FC Charma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.46Total

FA Tartu Kalev2.84

Tabasalu FC Charma1.62

1X2

62% 18% 20%

FA Tartu Kalev Draw Tabasalu FC Charma

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FA Tartu Kalev 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLWWW

Tabasalu FC Charma 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FA Tartu Kalev 3–1–2 Tabasalu FC Charma (6 last)

Tabasalu FC Charma3-1FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev4-0Tabasalu FC Charma
Tabasalu FC Charma3-9FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev1-1Tabasalu FC Charma
Tabasalu FC Charma2-1FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev1-0Tabasalu FC Charma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FA Tartu Kalev 1546 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1483

	FA Tartu Kalev	Draw	Tabasalu FC Charma
Our model	62%	18%	20%
Market	63%	18%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FA Tartu Kalev (rating 1546 vs 1483).
H2H favours FA Tartu Kalev: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FA Tartu Kalev	Tabasalu FC Charma
Goals for / against (FT)	3.9 / 2	2.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 7	3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.42▼	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.44 ★
2	3.90 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.76

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +13’	1.53	4.75	3.90
03:28 +3’	1.42▼	5.00▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:31	1.35	5.56	4.86
05:50 +1’	1.36▲	5.44▼	4.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FA Tartu Kalev 3–1–2 Tabasalu FC Charma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	3-1 HT 1-1	FA Tartu Kalev
21/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	4-0 HT 2-0	Tabasalu FC Charma
23/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	3-9 HT 1-4	FA Tartu Kalev
09/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-1 HT 0-1	Tabasalu FC Charma
19/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	Tabasalu FC Charma	2-1 HT 1-0	FA Tartu Kalev
08/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-0 HT 1-0	Tabasalu FC Charma

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	20	13	2	5	59	41	41
2	JK Trans Narva II	19	11	2	6	48	29	35
3	JK Viljandi Tulevik	20	11	2	7	55	39	35
4	Johvi FC Phoenix	20	11	2	7	49	47	35
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	20	10	2	8	57	46	32
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	20	10	2	8	48	39	32
7	FA Tartu Kalev	20	9	1	10	54	42	28
8	Tabasalu FC Charma	20	9	0	11	33	52	27
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	20	4	2	14	42	51	14
10	Tallinna JK Legion	19	3	1	15	18	77	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FA Tartu Kalev	Tabasalu FC Charma
Tallinna JK Legion	10-2 W	0-2 L
JK Trans Narva II	2-3 L	0-5 L
JK Viljandi Tulevik	3-4 L	2-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev II	2-7 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	JK Kuusalu Kalev Estonia Cup	5-0	7-0	19	3	W
19/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	5-0	4	2	W
12/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	5-1	10-2	–	–	W
21/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
18/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
10/06	Paide Linnameeskond III Estonia Cup	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-7	3	6	L
29/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	6-0	9	1	W

Tabasalu FC Charma

LLLWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	FC Tamper Estonia Cup	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/07	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
02/07	FC Tallinna Wolves Estonia Cup	5-0	10-0	–	–	W
21/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
18/06	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
13/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
31/05	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	0-5	3	3	L
27/05	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
24/05	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	0-2	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FA Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FA Tartu Kalev win (62%). Probabilities: FA Tartu Kalev 62%, draw 18%, Tabasalu FC Charma 20%.

How many goals are expected in FA Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

The model expects 4.46 goals (FA Tartu Kalev 2.84 · Tabasalu FC Charma 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FA Tartu Kalev vs Tabasalu FC Charma?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.