Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/07, 02:00
Prediction: Manta FC vs LDU Quito
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.89Total
Manta FC0.59
LDU Quito1.3
1X2
Manta FC
Draw
LDU Quito
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Manta FC
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
LDU Quito
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Manta FC
0–3–3
LDU Quito
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manta FC 1441 · LDU Quito 1516
| Manta FC | Draw | LDU Quito | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 31% | 53% |
| Market | 18% | 26% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (rating 1441 vs 1516).
- H2H favours LDU Quito: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manta FC | LDU Quito | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.1 | 2.9 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manta FC 0–3–3 LDU Quito
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Manta FC |
| 17/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Manta FC |
| 26/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | LDU Quito |
| 05/06/22 Ecuador Cup | Manta FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | LDU Quito |
| 26/09/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | LDU Quito |
| 14/04/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Manta FC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 49 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 32 |
| 5 | Macara | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 28 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 27 |
| 9 | Emelec | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 27 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
| 11 | Tecnico Universitario | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 21 | 23 |
| 12 | Orense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 23 |
| 13 | Delfin SC | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 23 |
| 14 | Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 21 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 25 | 13 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Manta FC | LDU Quito |
|---|---|---|
| Orense | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Macara | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
LDU Quito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 16/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 02/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | Lanus Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manta FC vs LDU Quito?
According to our model, the most likely result is an LDU Quito win (54%). Probabilities: Manta FC 17%, draw 29%, LDU Quito 54%.
How many goals are expected in Manta FC vs LDU Quito?
The model expects 1.89 goals (Manta FC 0.59 · LDU Quito 1.3), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Manta FC vs LDU Quito?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.