Football · Latvia Virsliga · 03/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs Ogre United

Team pages: FK Auda · Ogre United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

FK Auda2.45

Ogre United0.7

1X2

76% 16% 9%

FK Auda Draw Ogre United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLDWWW

Ogre United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWDLD

Head-to-head

FK Auda 1–1–0 Ogre United (2 last)

FK Auda2-0Ogre United
Ogre United1-1FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1543 · Ogre United 1469

	FK Auda	Draw	Ogre United
Our model	75%	17%	8%
Market	76%	15%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1543 vs 1469).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	Ogre United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +38’	1.18	6.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 1–1–0 Ogre United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-0 HT 1-0	Ogre United
17/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	24	20	2	2	56	16	62
2	Riga FC	23	18	4	1	68	20	58
3	FK Auda	23	13	4	6	38	26	43
4	FK Liepaja	23	9	4	10	30	34	31
5	BFC Daugavpils	24	8	6	10	29	30	30
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	24	6	7	11	24	41	25
8	SC Grobinas	24	4	9	11	17	37	21
9	Tukums 2000	24	3	8	13	38	48	17
10	Ogre United	24	3	5	16	23	61	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	0-4 L
FK Liepaja	1-0 W	0-4 L
RFS	1-1 D	0-6 L
Riga FC	0-2 L	1-4 L
SC Grobinas	0-0 D	2-2 D
SK Super Nova	2-0 W	2-1 W
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	3-2 W
FK Jelgava	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Auda

WDLWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
23/07	FCSB UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
11/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Cup	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
17/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
30/05	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	11	W

Ogre United

LLWLWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
12/07	Valmiera FC Latvia Cup	1-1	2-2	15	3	D
06/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
30/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	7	3	L
26/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
22/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
17/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
13/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-4	4	3	L
30/05	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	3	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs Ogre United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Auda win (76%). Probabilities: FK Auda 76%, draw 16%, Ogre United 9%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs Ogre United?

The model expects 3.16 goals (FK Auda 2.45 · Ogre United 0.7), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs Ogre United?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.