Football · Iceland 1 Deild Women · 14/08, 21:15

Prediction: IA Akranes (W) vs Keflavik (W)

Team pages: IA Akranes (W) · Keflavik (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

IA Akranes (W)1.63

Keflavik (W)1.86

1X2

33% 24% 43%

IA Akranes (W) Draw Keflavik (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IA Akranes (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLWDW

Keflavik (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

IA Akranes (W) 1–1–4 Keflavik (W) (6 last)

Keflavik (W)2-1IA Akranes (W)
Keflavik (W)1-2IA Akranes (W)
IA Akranes (W)1-1Keflavik (W)
IA Akranes (W)0-1Keflavik (W)
Keflavik (W)3-1IA Akranes (W)
Keflavik (W)2-0IA Akranes (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IA Akranes (W) 1512 · Keflavik (W) 1493

	IA Akranes (W)	Draw	Keflavik (W)
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Keflavik (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IA Akranes (W)	Keflavik (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 4.8	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	2.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +9’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IA Akranes (W) 1–1–4 Keflavik (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild Women	Keflavik (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	IA Akranes (W)
30/07/25 Iceland 1 Deild Women	Keflavik (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	IA Akranes (W)
22/05/25 Iceland 1 Deild Women	IA Akranes (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Keflavik (W)
06/09/20 Iceland 1 Deild Women	IA Akranes (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Keflavik (W)
16/07/20 Iceland 1 Deild Women	Keflavik (W)	3-1 HT 1-0	IA Akranes (W)
19/06/18 Iceland 1 Deild Women	Keflavik (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	IA Akranes (W)

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Grotta (W)	13	9	2	2	32	20	29
2	KR Reykjavik (W)	12	7	2	3	29	14	23
3	HK Kopavogur (W)	13	6	2	5	29	26	20
4	Selfoss (W)	12	6	1	5	25	19	19
5	IA Akranes (W)	13	5	3	5	27	21	18
6	Haukar (W)	12	5	3	4	18	23	18
7	Keflavik (W)	12	5	2	5	28	18	17
8	Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W)	12	5	2	5	22	20	17
9	Volsungur (W)	13	3	3	7	20	24	12
10	Tindastoll (W)	12	1	0	11	9	54	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IA Akranes (W)	Keflavik (W)
Haukar (W)	0-0 D	7-0 W
Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W)	0-2 L	1-3 L
HK Kopavogur (W)	2-2 D	0-1 L
Grotta (W)	1-2 L	3-4 L
Selfoss (W)	5-1 W	1-0 W
Volsungur (W)	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IA Akranes (W) (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IA Akranes (W)

WLDWLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Tindastoll (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	3-0	4-2	–	–	W
28/07	Haukar (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	0-0	0-0	9	0	D
23/07	KR Reykjavik (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
18/07	Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
10/07	HK Kopavogur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
02/07	Grotta (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
11/06	Selfoss (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	3-0	5-1	0	0	W
06/06	Volsungur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	2-2	2-2	–	–	D
30/05	Keflavik (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
25/05	Tindastoll (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	3-0	5-0	–	–	W

Keflavik (W)

DDLWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Volsungur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/07	Selfoss (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Haukar (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	3-0	7-0	5	2	W
27/06	Fjardabyggd/Leiknir/Hottur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
21/06	HK Kopavogur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/06	Grotta (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	2-1	3-4	2	1	L
30/05	IA Akranes (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
25/05	Volsungur (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
20/05	Selfoss (W) Iceland 1 Deild Women	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
15/05	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Cup Women	0-0	0-0	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IA Akranes (W) vs Keflavik (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Keflavik (W) win (43%). Probabilities: IA Akranes (W) 33%, draw 24%, Keflavik (W) 43%.

How many goals are expected in IA Akranes (W) vs Keflavik (W)?

The model expects 3.48 goals (IA Akranes (W) 1.63 · Keflavik (W) 1.86), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IA Akranes (W) vs Keflavik (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.