Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: Afturelding vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.1Total

Afturelding2.79

Grotta Seltjarnarnes1.32

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Afturelding Draw Grotta Seltjarnarnes

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Afturelding 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWWWD

Grotta Seltjarnarnes 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Afturelding 4–2–0 Grotta Seltjarnarnes (6 last)

Grotta Seltjarnarnes1-3Afturelding
Afturelding2-0Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Grotta Seltjarnarnes1-4Afturelding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Afturelding 1603 · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1502

	Afturelding	Draw	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Our model	67%	17%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afturelding (rating 1603 vs 1502).
H2H favours Afturelding: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Afturelding	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.4	2.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:52 +20’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Afturelding 4–2–0 Grotta Seltjarnarnes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-3 HT 0-2	Afturelding
06/02/26 Iceland League Cup	Afturelding	2-0 HT 0-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
18/07/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-4 HT 1-1	Afturelding
03/05/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	1-1 HT 1-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
02/08/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	1-1 HT 0-1	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
26/05/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	2-3 HT 1-3	Afturelding

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	14	10	1	3	43	21	31
2	Fylkir Reykjavik	14	10	0	4	32	20	30
3	HK Kopavogur	15	9	1	5	36	26	28
4	Throttur Reykjavik	14	8	3	3	27	14	27
5	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	14	7	1	6	29	28	22
6	IF Vestri	15	6	3	6	26	31	21
7	Njardvik	14	6	2	6	20	19	20
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	14	5	4	5	19	19	19
9	Grindavik	14	2	8	4	15	18	14
10	IR Reykjavik	15	3	4	8	25	36	13
11	Volsungur	14	1	5	8	17	34	8
12	KF Aegir	15	2	2	11	19	42	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Afturelding	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Fylkir Reykjavik	1-1 D	2-5 L
Leiknir Reykjavik	3-2 W	1-0 W
Volsungur	6-1 W	2-2 D
IR Reykjavik	1-0 W	1-2 L
KF Aegir	8-1 W	6-1 W
Njardvik	2-0 W	2-1 W
HK Kopavogur	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Afturelding (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Afturelding

WLWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	11	10	D
16/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
11/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	6-1	4	9	W
03/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	8-1	13	1	W
26/06	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
21/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
10/06	Stjarnan Iceland Cup	0-1	3-1	0	9	W
05/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-2	13	5	L
31/05	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	5-1	4	4	W

Grotta Seltjarnarnes

WWDLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	6-1	7	0	W
14/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
10/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
03/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	2-1	6	10	W
27/06	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
21/06	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	2-5	4	0	L
17/06	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland Cup	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
31/05	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
27/05	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	3-2	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Afturelding vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Afturelding win (67%). Probabilities: Afturelding 67%, draw 18%, Grotta Seltjarnarnes 15%.

How many goals are expected in Afturelding vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes?

The model expects 4.1 goals (Afturelding 2.79 · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Afturelding vs Grotta Seltjarnarnes?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.