Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 14/08, 23:30
Prediction: Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II
Team pages: Real Monarchs SLC · Minnesota United FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.44Total
Real Monarchs SLC1.72
Minnesota United FC II1.72
1X2
Real Monarchs SLC
Draw
Minnesota United FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Real Monarchs SLC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Minnesota United FC II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Monarchs SLC
3–1–2
Minnesota United FC II
(6 last)
- Real Monarchs SLC1-2Minnesota United FC II
- Real Monarchs SLC3-2Minnesota United FC II
- Minnesota United FC II2-1Real Monarchs SLC
- Minnesota United FC II2-2Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC2-1Minnesota United FC II
- Minnesota United FC II0-2Real Monarchs SLC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Monarchs SLC 1423 · Minnesota United FC II 1478
| Real Monarchs SLC | Draw | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minnesota United FC II (rating 1423 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Real Monarchs SLC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Monarchs SLC | Minnesota United FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 1.9 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Monarchs SLC 3–1–2 Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 25/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 13/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 31/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 28/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 10/07/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo II | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers II | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 28 | 38 |
| 5 | St Louis City II | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 33 | 32 | 35 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 32 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 25 | 31 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 35 | 30 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 29 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 42 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 53 | 19 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 49 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 42 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Monarchs SLC | Minnesota United FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo II | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| St Louis City II | 0-3 L | 5-2 W |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Tacoma Defiance | 2-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Los Angeles FC II | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| The Town | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Minnesota United FC II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
Minnesota United FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Monarchs SLC win (38%). Probabilities: Real Monarchs SLC 38%, draw 24%, Minnesota United FC II 38%.
How many goals are expected in Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model expects 3.44 goals (Real Monarchs SLC 1.72 · Minnesota United FC II 1.72), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Monarchs SLC vs Minnesota United FC II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.