Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 01/08, 01:00
Prediction: Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II
Team pages: Toronto FC II · Columbus Crew II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.26Total
Toronto FC II1.61
Columbus Crew II1.65
1X2
Toronto FC II
Draw
Columbus Crew II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Toronto FC II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Columbus Crew II
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC II
1–4–1
Columbus Crew II
(6 last)
- Columbus Crew II2-2Toronto FC II
- Columbus Crew II3-2Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II0-0Columbus Crew II
- Columbus Crew II1-2Toronto FC II
- Columbus Crew II2-2Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II1-1Columbus Crew II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1442 · Columbus Crew II 1561
| Toronto FC II | Draw | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 37% | 24% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Columbus Crew II (rating 1442 vs 1561).
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.3 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 3 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 1–4–1 Columbus Crew II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 20/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Columbus Crew II |
| 28/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 08/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 05/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Columbus Crew II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 27 | 40 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew II | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Chattanooga FC | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 30 | 37 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 36 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 34 | 35 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 30 | 33 |
| 7 | New York Red Bulls II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 32 |
| 8 | CT United | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 33 | 31 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 30 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 28 |
| 11 | Huntsville City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | 28 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 26 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 46 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toronto FC II | Columbus Crew II |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati II | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| CT United | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Atlanta United II | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| New England Revolution II | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Philadelphia Union II | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Columbus Crew II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
Columbus Crew II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 29/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Columbus Crew II win (39%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 37%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew II 39%.
How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II?
The model expects 3.26 goals (Toronto FC II 1.61 · Columbus Crew II 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs Columbus Crew II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.