Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 16/08, 10:00

Prediction: Moggill vs Newmarket

Team pages: Moggill · Newmarket

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

Moggill2

Newmarket2.09

1X2

37% 22% 41%

Moggill Draw Newmarket

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Moggill 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWDDW

Newmarket 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Moggill 0–1–2 Newmarket (3 last)

Newmarket7-0Moggill
Moggill1-3Newmarket
Newmarket0-0Moggill

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moggill 1569 · Newmarket 1609

	Moggill	Draw	Newmarket
Our model	37%	22%	41%
Market	37%	22%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1569 vs 1609).
H2H favours Newmarket: 2-1-0.
High corners: 16.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moggill	Newmarket
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.2	4.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 10.5	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.5	2.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.40

X4.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.25 ★
2	1.83 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.29

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +2’	3.00	4.20	1.83
07:31 +4’	2.40▼	4.00▼	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:16 +2’	2.59	3.95	2.06
07:34	2.23▼	4.16▲	2.30▲
09:13 +2’	2.27▲	4.25▲	2.29▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moggill 0–1–2 Newmarket

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3	Newmarket	7-0 HT 2-0	Moggill
12/09/21 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1	Moggill	1-3 HT 1-2	Newmarket
09/05/21 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1	Newmarket	0-0 HT 0-0	Moggill

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newmarket	22	16	4	2	87	27	52
2	AC Carina	22	16	3	3	76	33	51
3	Moggill	23	14	5	4	65	34	47
4	Yeronga FC	24	13	4	7	69	35	43
5	Springfield United	23	9	6	8	47	46	33
6	Ipswich Knights	23	9	1	13	35	55	28
7	Mount Gravatt Hawks	22	7	6	9	37	49	27
8	Logan Roos FC	22	8	2	12	48	67	26
9	North Lakes United	23	7	3	13	52	68	24
10	North Brisbane FC	22	6	5	11	33	62	23
11	University of Queensland	23	5	7	11	49	61	22
12	North Pine	23	6	3	14	29	48	21
13	Redcliffe Dolphins SC	24	6	3	15	42	84	21

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moggill	Newmarket
North Lakes United	6-4 W	9-0 W
Ipswich Knights	2-2 D	9-0 W
North Brisbane FC	1-1 D	5-1 W
Springfield United	3-2 W	2-2 D
Logan Roos FC	2-1 W	5-2 W
University of Queensland	0-0 D	3-3 D
North Pine	4-0 W	3-1 W
Redcliffe Dolphins SC	5-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Newmarket (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moggill

WWWDWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3	5-2	6-4	–	–	W
01/08	Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
25/07	North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/07	AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/07	Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3	2-2	3-2	9	7	W
05/07	Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
27/06	University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
20/06	North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/06	Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3	2-0	2-1	9	2	W
06/06	Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	2-0	5-1	–	–	W

Newmarket

DWDWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Yeronga FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	1-0	2-2	9	8	D
01/08	Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
29/07	North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
26/07	North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3	4-0	9-0	4	1	W
22/07	North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3	2-0	6-0	4	0	W
19/07	Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3	3-0	9-0	7	5	W
11/07	North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
27/06	Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
20/06	Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3	4-0	5-2	3	2	W
13/06	University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3	1-1	3-3	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moggill vs Newmarket?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newmarket win (41%). Probabilities: Moggill 37%, draw 22%, Newmarket 41%.

How many goals are expected in Moggill vs Newmarket?

The model expects 4.09 goals (Moggill 2 · Newmarket 2.09), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Moggill vs Newmarket?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.