Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Aalesunds FK 2 vs Nardo

Team pages: Aalesunds FK 2 · Nardo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.32Total

Aalesunds FK 22.58

Nardo1.74

1X2

55% 20% 25%

Aalesunds FK 2 Draw Nardo

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Aalesunds FK 2 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Nardo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aalesunds FK 2 3–2 Nardo (5 last)

Nardo5-1Aalesunds FK 2
Aalesunds FK 24-1Nardo
Nardo2-3Aalesunds FK 2
Aalesunds FK 21-0Nardo
Nardo1-0Aalesunds FK 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aalesunds FK 2 1493 · Nardo 1434

	Aalesunds FK 2	Draw	Nardo
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	55%	20%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.32 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aalesunds FK 2 (rating 1493 vs 1434).
H2H favours Aalesunds FK 2: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aalesunds FK 2	Nardo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	1.6 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 3.7	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +5’	1.61	4.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aalesunds FK 2 3–0–2 Nardo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Nardo	5-1 HT 1-0	Aalesunds FK 2
14/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Aalesunds FK 2	4-1 HT 3-0	Nardo
29/04/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Nardo	2-3 HT 1-1	Aalesunds FK 2
14/09/15 Norway Division 2 Group 4	Aalesunds FK 2	1-0 HT 1-0	Nardo
01/06/15 Norway Division 2 Group 4	Nardo	1-0 HT 1-0	Aalesunds FK 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	16	10	3	3	40	18	33
2	Melhus	16	9	5	2	43	21	32
3	Strindheim	16	9	3	4	41	27	30
4	Herd	16	8	3	5	40	24	27
5	Rosenborg 2	16	7	4	5	34	26	25
6	Spjelkavik	16	6	4	6	31	31	22
7	Molde 2	16	6	4	6	46	48	22
8	Byåsen	16	6	4	6	31	34	22
9	Kvik Trondheim	16	6	3	7	31	36	21
10	Ranheim 2	16	5	4	7	40	55	19
11	Aalesunds FK 2	16	5	1	10	29	45	16
12	NTNUI	16	3	6	7	20	34	15
13	Nardo	16	4	2	10	29	38	14
14	Orkla	16	4	2	10	29	47	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aalesunds FK 2	Nardo
Herd	3-0 W	1-4 L
Strindheim	0-2 L	1-4 L
Byåsen	1-2 L	2-4 L
Ranheim 2	2-5 L	3-5 L
NTNUI	1-0 W	2-0 W
Molde 2	0-6 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aalesunds FK 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
10/08	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
03/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
25/07	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
27/06	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
22/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-5	2-5	3	2	L
13/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
31/05	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
26/05	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
14/05	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-6	–	–	L

Nardo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
25/07	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
13/06	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	4	5	L
30/05	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/05	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
14/05	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aalesunds FK 2 vs Nardo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aalesunds FK 2 win (55%). Probabilities: Aalesunds FK 2 55%, draw 20%, Nardo 25%.

How many goals are expected in Aalesunds FK 2 vs Nardo?

The model expects 4.32 goals (Aalesunds FK 2 2.58 · Nardo 1.74), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Aalesunds FK 2 vs Nardo?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.