Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano

Team pages: Universidad Catolica · Audax Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Universidad Catolica2.03

Audax Italiano0.97

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Universidad Catolica Draw Audax Italiano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLWWWW

Audax Italiano 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica 2–2–2 Audax Italiano (6 last)

Audax Italiano3-4Universidad Catolica
Audax Italiano1-1Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica3-1Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano2-1Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica0-0Audax Italiano
Universidad Catolica0-2Audax Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica 1554 · Audax Italiano 1497

	Universidad Catolica	Draw	Audax Italiano
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (rating 1554 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica	Audax Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	1.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.55
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.22 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:07 +75’	1.53	4.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +70’	1.55	4.22	5.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica 2–2–2 Audax Italiano

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	3-4 HT 2-3	Universidad Catolica
20/07/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	1-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica
17/02/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	3-1 HT 2-1	Audax Italiano
18/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	2-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica
18/03/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	0-0 HT 0-0	Audax Italiano
05/08/23 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	0-2 HT 0-2	Audax Italiano

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	48	22	54
2	Universidad Catolica	23	13	3	7	50	33	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	12	6	5	35	19	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	10	6	7	37	25	36
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	36	33	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	10	3	10	43	35	33
7	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28	31	32
8	Deportes Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25	26	31
9	Huachipato	23	9	4	10	32	39	31
10	La Serena	23	7	9	7	34	38	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	8	5	10	31	32	29
12	Audax Italiano	23	7	7	9	26	31	28
13	O'Higgins	23	8	3	12	28	36	27
14	Cobresal	23	7	3	13	34	44	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	6	4	13	17	39	22
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	19	40	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica	Audax Italiano
Palestino	3-2 W	0-0 D
Everton de Vina	1-0 W	1-1 D
O'Higgins	3-2 W	1-0 W
Nublense	1-2 L	2-2 D
Deportes Concepcion	0-3 L	1-0 W
La Serena	3-3 D	1-1 D
Universidad de Concepcion	5-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Catolica

WWDLWLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
05/09	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
01/09	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
27/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
08/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	10	4	W
02/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
26/07	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-3	6	2	D
14/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
31/05	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-0	7	3	W

Audax Italiano

DDLWDDDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
05/09	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
30/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-5	6	1	L
22/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
16/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
11/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
01/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
26/07	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
13/06	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
01/06	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica win (61%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica 61%, draw 23%, Audax Italiano 16%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano?

The model expects 3 goals (Universidad Catolica 2.03 · Audax Italiano 0.97), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs Audax Italiano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.